The Notre Dame Fighting Irish and USC Trojans meet in an iconic rivalry game with elevated implications for one of the two when they meet on Saturday afternoon. The Irish appear locked into the expanded College Football Playoff format, but can the Trojans provide a final stumbling block that casts doubt on their resume?
Who will prevail? Our Notre Dame vs. USC prediction dives into all the details—from the latest betting odds to what’s at stake for both programs as they navigate the final stretch game of the 2024 college football regular season.
Notre Dame vs. USC Betting Preview
All Notre Dame vs. USC odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Nov. 28, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Notre Dame -9 - Spread
Notre Dame -7.5 - Moneyline
Notre Dame -285, USC +230 - Over/Under
51.5 points - Game Time
3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum | Los Angeles, CA - Predicted Weather at Kick
70 degrees, 2 mph winds, partly cloudy - How To Watch
CBS
Saturday marks the 92nd edition of the Notre Dame vs. USC rivalry, which has featured prominently in popular culture moments such as the Christmas classic Die Hard. Having beaten the Trojans handily in 2023, the Fighting Irish carry a decent 49-37-5 head-to-head lead into this Week 14 clash and are favored to extend that historical advantage when the two teams meet.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Although you can usually throw betting trends out the window in a rivalry matchup, there’s something to be said about Notre Dame’s current run of form. The Irish have won their last nine games as a favorite and have covered the spread in their last six. USC lost the last time they were an underdog (against the Penn State Nittany Lions), but did manage to cover in the 33-30 loss.
Notre Dame’s Winning Probability
The Fighting Irish have won 10+ games in seven of the last eight seasons. Yet, they want more in 2024. Marcus Freeman’s squad entered Week 13 as the No. 6 team in the College Football Playoff Committee’s rankings, and they should move up with the new release on Tuesday.
- at USC: 75.1%
USC’s Winning Probability
The Trojans secured bowl eligibility with a win over their crosstown rivals, the UCLA Bruins, last week, but it’s been the “worst” season in the Lincoln Riley era. Year 1 saw USC go 11-3 and earn a Cotton Bowl berth, but the decline began the following season, resulting in an 8-5 campaign.
- vs. Notre Dame: 24.9%
Prediction for Notre Dame vs. USC
There is no need to bury the lede here — Notre Dame is winning; the question is by how much. The offense is averaging 40.1 points per game and has scored 49+ in five games. On the flip side, USC is on its second QB and has scored over 30 just three times this year. But let’s dive in a little more.
The Irish have lived on the ground, rushing at the 41st-highest rate (55.18%) while averaging the 11th-most yards per game (221.8). That’s not great for a USC defense that ranks 107th in early down EPA and 63rd in defensive rush success rate.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The Trojans offense, meanwhile, passes at the sixth-highest clip (60.32%) and draws the No. 1 defense in dropback success rate and No. 2 in EPA per dropback. “At least Woody Marks averages 5.7 yards per carry, then.” About that … ND allows just 3.5 yards per attempt, is No. 8 in third-down conversion rate allowed (29.7%), and is No. 5 in red-zone rate (70.8%).
Even when you throw in some wild rivalry shenanigans, there are just too few avenues to success for USC. Take the Irish to embarrass Riley and Co. once again as they close out the regular season and prepare for the CFP.
Prediction: Notre Dame 45, USC 20
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