The Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Penn State Nittany Lions have clashed 19 times throughout their storied histories, with their series deadlocked at 9-9-1. What better stage to break the tie than in the College Football Playoff semifinals?
Our Notre Dame vs. Penn State prediction covers everything you need to know—from the latest betting odds to the immense stakes both teams face in this pivotal showdown.
Notre Dame vs. Penn State College Football Playoff Semifinals Betting Preview
All Notre Dame vs. Penn State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Jan. 4, 2025. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Notre Dame -1 - Spread
Notre Dame -1.5 - Moneyline
Notre Dame -120, Penn State +100 - Over/Under
45.5 points - Game Time
7:30 p.m. ET, Thursday, Jan. 9 - Location
Hard Rock Stadium | Miami Gardens, Fla. - Predicted Weather at Kick
TBD - How To Watch
ESPN
Both of these programs are coming off back-to-back unders in the CFP, leading to a relatively low total. That said, Notre Dame games have hit the over in four of five with a total under 50 this season.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
In terms of the spread, there are a couple of trends to note:
- Notre Dame has covered in 10 straight games.
- Penn State failed to cover in its only two games as underdogs this season (+3.5 vs. both Oregon and Ohio State).
Notre Dame’s Winning Probability
The Fighting Irish have steadily improved under Marcus Freeman, going from 9-4 to 10-3 to an impressive 13-1. Along the way, they’ve notched four straight postseason victories, including decisive College Football Playoff wins over Indiana (27-17) and Georgia (23-10).
Freeman’s success earned him a lucrative four-year extension worth $9 million annually, solidifying his position as one of college football’s premier head coaches.
- at Penn State: 50.8%
Penn State’s Winning Probability
James Franklin’s struggles against Top 10 opponents are well-documented, with a 4-19 record in such matchups. However, the Nittany Lions’ second-round win over No. 3 Boise State (31-14) broke that narrative, marking their first Top 10 victory since the 2022 Rose Bowl.
Critics argue Penn State has had the “easiest” CFP path, and it’s hard to disagree. Wins over No. 11 SMU (38-10) and Boise State (31-14) have brought them to this point, but Notre Dame represents a significant step up in competition.
- vs. Notre Dame: 49.2%
Prediction for Notre Dame vs. Penn State
Penn State’s defense has been elite all season, ranking in the top 10 nationally across most major metrics. Their rush defense will be particularly crucial against Notre Dame, which averages 6.2 yards per carry and ranks third nationally in rush EPA.
The Nittany Lions’ defensive front is a menace, leading the Big Ten with 102 tackles for loss and consistently disrupting opposing offenses.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
On offense, tight end Tyler Warren has been the focal point of Penn State’s attack. With 98 catches for 1,158 yards, eight receiving touchdowns, and four rushing scores, his versatility makes him one of the most dynamic players in the country.
However, Penn State’s passing game has lacked depth beyond Warren, leaving much of the burden on his shoulders and the rushing attack to deliver. Notre Dame’s defense, ranked fourth in EPA per play, fifth in net points per drive, and eighth in success rate, is more than equipped to exploit this imbalance.
Ultimately, this game comes down to head coaches and quarterbacks. While James Franklin and Drew Allar have stepped up in recent weeks, Marcus Freeman and Riley Leonard bring the edge in a tightly contested defensive showdown. Expect Notre Dame to prevail in a hard-fought battle.
Prediction: Notre Dame 24, Penn State 19
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