Maryland and Northwestern are 0-2 in conference play so far this season, but one of them will leave Week 7 with their first Big Ten win.
Get the latest betting odds, spread analysis, and our pick in this Northwestern vs. Maryland prediction ahead of Friday’s Big Ten showdown.
Northwestern vs. Maryland Betting Preview
All Northwestern vs. Maryland odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Oct. 7, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Maryland -10.5 - Spread
Maryland -10 - Moneyline
Maryland -375, Northwestern +295 - Over/Under
45 points - Game Time
8:00 p.m. ET, Friday, Oct. 11 - Location
SECU Stadium, College Park, Md. - Predicted Weather at Kick
58 degrees, 2 mph winds, clear - How To Watch
Fox
The line has come down by a couple of points from Maryland -12 while the total has risen from 43.5 at the opening.
Speaking of the total, the over has hit in four of the Terrapins’ and three of the Wildcats’ last five games.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
The spread hasn’t been too kind to Northwestern, as the program is 1-4 ATS this season. However, it hasn’t been much nicer to Maryland, who is 0-6 ATS in its last six games played in October.
And for those looking at the moneyline, the Wildcats are 2-15 straight up in their last 17 games on the road.
Northwestern’s Winning Probability
The FPM and sportsbooks are in near lockstep when it comes to the spread, with Northwestern owning a 20.7% win probability in Week 7. Yet, that’s nowhere close to its lowest, with Ohio State and Michigan still on the schedule.
Here are the Wildcats’ win probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. Wisconsin: 22.6%
- at Iowa: 17.2%
- at Purdue: 37.4%
- vs. Ohio State: 3.1%
- at Michigan: 8.3%
- vs. Illinois: 18.9%
Maryland’s Winning Probability
By simple subtraction, Maryland’s win probability is a generous 79.3%. The program shouldn’t take it for granted, though, as it isn’t favored in any of its final six games in 2024.
Here are the Terrapins’ win probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. USC: 29.7%
- at Minnesota: 48.8%
- at Oregon: 5.9%
- vs. Rutgers: 48.8%
- vs. Iowa: 47.5%
- at Penn State: 8.9%
Prediction for Northwestern vs. Maryland
The Terrapins (42-28 in Week 5) and Wildcats (41-24 in Week 6) are coming off identical losses to the undefeated Indiana Hoosiers. But only one of them will stop the bleeding in Week 7.
Maryland is generating 14.8 more points than Northwestern, but what’s worse is the home squad is producing two more passing yards (304.8) than the Wildcats’ average total yards (302.8).
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Is Jack Lausch a clear upgrade over Mike Wright? Probably not, but neither is the answer under center, hence a 2-3 record with wins over Miami-OH (currently 1-4) and FCS-level Eastern Illinois.
Meanwhile, Billy Edwards Jr. has caused fans to forget about Taulia Tagovailoa, completing 72.3% of his passes for 11 TDs, two INTs, and 8.2 yards per attempt. The Wildcats have a strong defense, but the offense won’t be able to keep up with the Terrapins’ trio of Edwards, RB Roman Hemby, and WR Tai Felton, who has averaged a 10-151-1 receiving line across the last four games.
Prediction: Maryland 28, Northwestern 13
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