If you’re hoping for a high-scoring showdown this Saturday afternoon, the Iowa Hawkeyes’ matchup against the Northwestern Wildcats might not be your best bet. Who will come out on top when these two face off in a classic Big Ten battle?
Our prediction for Northwestern vs. Iowa covers everything you need to know, from the latest betting odds to each team’s prospects for the rest of the 2024 college football season.
Northwestern vs. Iowa Betting Preview
All Northwestern vs. Iowa odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Oct. 25, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Iowa -13 - Spread
Iowa -14.5 - Moneyline
Iowa -575, Northwestern +425 - Over/Under
38 points - Game time
3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Kinnick Stadium | Iowa City, IA - Predicted Weather at Kick
59 degrees, mostly sunny, 6 mph winds - How to Watch
Big Ten Network
While neither fanbase would describe this matchup as a rivalry game, it’s been a long-running fixture on the college football calendar. Saturday marks the 86th edition of Nebraska vs. Iowa, with the Hawkeyes enjoying a healthy advantage over the Wildcats. Having won the last three encounters, Iowa takes a 54-28-3 lead in the head-to-head into the Week 9 battle.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Although they’re just a game apart in 2024, Iowa is a decent moneyline and spread favorite ahead of Saturday’s game. Although they’ve lost two when favored this year, you should be safe with a moneyline bet on the Hawkeyes. Less safe is the spread, with Iowa covering just thrice and Northwestern twice this year.
The under might be the safest bet of all, with five of the last seven matchups between the two teams failing to breach 30 points.
Northwestern’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Northwestern only has a 17.2% chance of beating Iowa on Saturday afternoon. Our metric has been right about most Wildcats games this year, only forecasting the win over Maryland wrong through seven games so far.
- at Iowa: 17.2%
- at Purdue: 50%
- vs. Ohio State: 4.4%
- at Michigan: 14.9%
- vs. Illinois: 18.4%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Wildcats would end the year with a 4-8 record, presuming they win the 50:50 game with the Purdue Boilermakers. That is something of a sophomore slump for second-year head coach David Braun.
Iowa’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Iowa has an 82.8% chance of beating the Wildcats on Saturday afternoon. The CFN FPM projected the Hawkeyes to have five wins at this point of the season, incorrectly projecting the program to beat the Michigan State Spartans.
Aside from that, our metric has been in lockstep with Kirk Ferentz’s squad.
- vs. Northwestern: 82.8%
- vs. Wisconsin: 53.8%
- at UCLA: 75.3%
- at Maryland: 61.1%
- vs. Nebraska: 54.3%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, Iowa would finish the season with a 9-3 record. That said, the matchups with the Wisconsin Badgers and Nebraska Cornhuskers are close enough to be classed as pick ’em games that could flip the narrative of the season if the Hawkeyes don’t emerge victorious.
Prediction for Northwestern vs. Iowa
A famous British game show once used the slogan “points make prizes,” and if that applied to college football, these two teams might not win much. While Iowa has shown a bit more offensive spark than in past seasons, both teams sit in the bottom half of the FBS in scoring, though they both boast solid defenses.
Can the 3-4 Wildcats stir up trouble at Kinnick Stadium on Saturday, or will Iowa prove too strong to fall victim to an upset on home turf? Who has the edge, and where will the key battles take place?
Unsurprisingly, the key to this matchup is Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson. Simply put, he is the heart of the Hawkeyes’ offense. While quarterback Cade McNamara has had some modest successes this season, the leap from the 132nd-ranked scoring offense last year to the 73rd this season rests heavily on the shoulders of one of the nation’s top offensive players.
Johnson has been electric, nearly unstoppable this season. If it weren’t for Ashton Jeanty’s historic pace, the Hawkeyes’ star would be a frontrunner for the Doak Walker Award, drawing more national attention. Through seven games, he’s racked up 1,035 rushing yards at 7.8 yards per carry, with 14 total touchdowns and a handful of receiving stats.
Iowa hasn’t won this season when Johnson hasn’t topped 100 yards. Northwestern, however, ranks fifth in the Big Ten for fewest yards allowed per carry (3.23) and has surrendered just six rushing touchdowns this year. They’ve allowed only 103.4 rushing yards per game, which could give them a chance to slow down Iowa’s offense and keep things tight.
Unfortunately for the Wildcats, even if they manage to keep Iowa below their scoring average, the Northwestern offense will run into a formidable Hawkeyes defense. While it may not be as dominant as in recent years, it’s more than capable of containing an offense whose brightest spark in 2024 has been Cam Porter with 320 rushing yards.
Prediction: Northwestern 10, Iowa 24
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