Week 11 Midweek MACtion wraps up on Wednesday with what should be a highly exciting matchup between the Northern Illinois Huskies and the Western Michigan Broncos.
Who wins? Our Northern Illinois vs. Western Michigan prediction covers all the key aspects, from the latest betting odds to each team’s prospects for the rest of the 2024 college football season.
Northern Illinois vs. Western Michigan Betting Preview
All Northern Illinois vs. Western Michigan odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Western Michigan -3 - Spread
Northern Illinois -2 - Moneyline
Northern Illinois -120, Western Michigan +100 - Over/Under
52.5 points - Game time
7 p.m. ET - Location
Waldo Stadium | Kalamazoo, MI - Predicted Weather at Kick
41 degrees, clear, 6 mph winds - How to Watch
ESPN2
Wednesday night marks the 50th matchup between the Huskies and Broncos. While Northern Illinois has won the last two in a row, Western Michigan heads into the game with a 27-22 head-to-head advantage — not to mention a hot streak in the 2024 season. Despite that, Thomas Hammock’s Huskies are a slight favorite according to the latest DraftKings Sportsbook.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
As we’ll delve into during our Northern Illinois vs. Western Michigan prediction, there are reasons to have confidence in the Huskies. However, the program has failed to cover the last two games and is only 3-5 ATS this year. Western Michigan has covered the last three games of their four-game win streak. With such a small margin here, the Broncos should be able to cover.
Northern Illinois’ Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Northern Illinois has a 42.6% chance of beating Western Michigan on Wednesday night. While they’re an underdog here, our metric hasn’t always been in lockstep with the Huskies during a season where they’ve won and lost against expectation almost in equal measure.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for Northern Illinois in the 2024 season:
- at Western Michigan: 42.6%
- vs. Akron: 74.2%
- at Miami (OH): 38.9%
- vs. Central Michigan: 66.9%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Huskies would end the year with a 6-6 record, securing bowl eligibility for the second successive season for the first time since 2017-2018. A 3-5 record in the MAC would be a step back from last season.
Western Michigan’s Winning Probability
Conversely, CFN FPM gives Western Michigan a 57.4% chance of beating the Huskies on Wednesday night. Our metric has had a good measure of the Broncos in MAC competition but incorrectly predicted a win ahead of the defeat to the Marshall Thundering Herd.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for Western Michigan in the 2024 season:
- vs. Northern Illinois: 57.4%
- at Bowling Green: 44.4%
- at Central Michigan: 66.9%
- vs. Eastern Michigan: 71.6%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Broncos would end the year with an 8-4 overall record, their best regular season since 2016. Meanwhile, our metric projects a 7-1 MAC record, likely leading to a place in the MAC Championship Game.
Prediction for Northern Illinois vs. Western Michigan
Get yourself ready for a good old-fashioned MACtion slugfest on Wednesday night because there are plenty of reasons to believe these two teams will deliver something extremely entertaining in Week 11. After shocking the Notre Dame Fighting Irish early in the year, Northern Illinois has struggled in conference play (1-3) but can absolutely win any game on any given day.
Western Michigan got smashed off the park in their Power Four encounters this season but have rallied and rushed out to a 4-0 start to MAC play. Can they continue that run in Week 11, or will the Huskies get back on track with a midweek win? Who has the edge, and where will the pivotal battles play out?
The MACtion matchup is the ultimate clash of the unstoppable force and the immovable object. Northern Illinois leads the MAC in almost every conceivable metric, headlined by allowing just 17.6 points per game. Want to establish the run against the Huskies? Good luck against a unit that has allowed just four rushing touchdowns and 3.31 yards per carry.
If you make it down the field to the red zone, how heavily do you fancy your chances against a red zone defense that allows just 35% of trips to result in a touchdown? Planning on going for it on third down? Hammock’s team has allowed a first down on just 25.71% of attempts. Opposition QBs have only completed 56.5% of their attempts on Northern Illinois’ defense.
That’s the immovable object. The Western Michigan offense is the unstoppable force. Lance Taylor was hired as the Broncos head coach a year ago for his offensive acumen, and the program is finally forming in his image. No MAC team comes close to the 34.0 points per game the Broncos have tallied this fall. They’re crushing teams behind a 19-touchdown run game.
Jaden Nixon, Zahir Abdus-Salaam, and Jalen Buckley have all averaged over five yards per carry. They don’t throw the ball a ton, but when they do, the Hayden Wolff to Blake Bosma can take advantage of any weakness in a defense. The former Old Dominion QB leads the conference in yards per attempt and has been picked off three times this year.
The flip side here is that the Broncos defense has been porous this season, ranking 117th in the nation with 33.8 points per game allowed. Three teams have put up 40+ teams on the Western Michigan defense. Meanwhile, the Huskies offense ranks 103rd in the country with 23.4 points per game. They’ve not scored more than that against any MAC team.
When an unstoppable force comes up against an immovable object and a stoppable force encounters a moveable object, the breaking point — in college football at least — is special teams. While Northern Illinois has blocked three kicks this season, they’ve also had some kicking woes. Western Michigan’s Luka Zurak (100% PAT, 90% FGs) could be the hero on Wednesday.
Prediction: Northern Illinois 24, Western Michigan 27
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