The Miami RedHawks have owned the recent rivalry with the Northern Illinois Huskies, winning the last three matchups to take an 11-9 edge in the all-time series. Even more impressive, the RedHawks are riding a five-game winning streak in 2024, all against MAC opponents. At 5-1, they sit atop the conference standings, but the Huskies, winners of two straight, are primed to play spoiler in Week 13.
Our Northern Illinois vs. Miami (OH) prediction breaks down this matchup with key betting insights to guide your picks.
Northern Illinois vs. Miami (OH) Betting Preview
All Northern Illinois vs. Miami (OH) odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Nov. 19, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Miami (OH) -5 - Spread
Miami (OH) -1.5 - Moneyline
Miami (OH) -122, Northern Illinois +102 - Over/Under
43 points - Game Time
8:00 p.m. ET, Tuesday, Nov. 19 - Location
Yager Stadium | Oxford, Ohio - Predicted Weather at Kick
59 degrees, 5 mph winds, clear - How To Watch
ESPN
Are you a total bettor? If so, may I interest you in some juicy trends toward the over in this one?
- The over has hit in four of NIU’s last six games.
- The over has hit in four of the last five NIU-Miami contests.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
As for those who favor the spread, the trends are far for more dicey.
- Northern Illinois is 4-1 ATS in its previous five road games.
- Miami is 8-1 ATS in its past nine games against NIU.
Northern Illinois’ Winning Probability
The Huskies secured bowl eligibility with a 29-16 win over the Akron Zips last week, but at 3-3 in conference play, they are largely out of the MAC title race. Regardless, they’ll want to finish the season on a hot streak, with only Miami and the Central Michigan Chippewas remaining on the schedule.
- at Miami (OH): 36.4%
- vs. Central Michigan: 74.9%
Miami (OH)’s Winning Probability
The RedHawks could be peeking at their season finale matchup with the Bowling Green Falcons, which will likely be for a spot in the MAC Championship. However, they can’t overlook this week’s battle with NIU, as a league loss would give Ohio and Bowling Green a leg up in the standings.
- vs. Northern Illinois: 63.6%
- at Bowling Green: 44.4%
Prediction for Northern Illinois vs. Miami (OH)
The implied score for this game—Miami 22, NIU 20—says it all. Both teams boast strong defenses but come with their fair share of offensive struggles. The Huskies rank 110th in offensive EPA, while the RedHawks sit slightly better at 90th.
The outcome will hinge on unit-level matchups, and Miami’s rushing attack is a glaring concern. Ranked 111th in rush EPA and 110th in rush success rate, the RedHawks face an uphill battle against an NIU defense that’s allowing just 114.2 rushing yards per game (26th) and 3.5 yards per carry (24th).
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
“That’s OK. Miami’s offense runs through QB Brett Gabbert anyway.” Sure—but that’s not exactly a promising avenue either. NIU ranks third in defensive dropback success rate and 33rd in EPA per dropback, making this an equally tough matchup for the RedHawks’ aerial attack.
As for NIU’s offense? Scoring isn’t their strong suit. Despite running the ball at the 13th-highest rate in the nation (39.6%), they’re only 96th in EPA per rush. Add in QB Ethan Hampton’s reluctance to stretch the field and some turnover luck, and the Huskies’ offensive ceiling looks low.
Miami’s defense should smother NIU, setting up the offense with favorable field position. Expect the RedHawks to grind out a low-scoring victory both straight up and against the spread.
Prediction: Miami (OH) 20, Northern Illinois 10
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