The Miami RedHawks have won the last three meetings with the Northern Illinois Huskies, taking an 11-9 lead in the all-time series. More impressive? They are on a five-game winning streak in 2024, all of which came in conference play. At 5-1, the RedHawks are atop the MAC standings, but the Huskies, riding a two-game win streak of their own, could play spoiler in Week 13.
Our Northern Illinois vs. Miami (OH) prediction analyzes this matchup, delivering key betting insights to help inform your picks.
Northern Illinois vs. Miami (OH) Betting Preview
All Northern Illinois vs. Miami (OH) odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Nov. 18, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Miami (OH) -5 - Spread
Miami (OH) -2.5 - Moneyline
Miami (OH) -130, Northern Illinois +110 - Over/Under
41.5 points - Game Time
8:00 p.m. ET, Tuesday, Nov. 19 - Location
Yager Stadium | Oxford, Ohio - Predicted Weather at Kick
59 degrees, 5 mph winds, clear - How To Watch
ESPN
Are you a total bettor? If so, may I interest you in some juicy trends toward the over in this one?
- The over has hit in four of NIU’s last six games.
- The over has hit in four of the last five NIU-Miami contests.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
As for those who favor the spread, the trends are far for more dicey.
- Northern Illinois is 4-1 ATS in its previous five road games.
- Miami is 8-1 ATS in its past nine games against NIU.
Northern Illinois’ Winning Probability
The Huskies secured bowl eligibility with a 29-16 win over the Akron Zips last week, but at 3-3 in conference play, they are largely out of the MAC title race. Regardless, they’ll want to finish the season on a hot streak, with only Miami and the Central Michigan Chippewas remaining on the schedule.
- at Miami (OH): 36.4%
- vs. Central Michigan: 74.9%
Miami (OH)’s Winning Probability
The RedHawks could be peeking at their season finale matchup with the Bowling Green Falcons, which will likely be for a spot in the MAC Championship. However, they can’t overlook this week’s battle with NIU, as a league loss would give Ohio and Bowling Green a leg up in the standings.
- vs. Northern Illinois: 63.6%
- at Bowling Green: 44.4%
Prediction for Northern Illinois vs. Miami (OH)
There’s a reason the implied score of this game is just Miami 22, NIU 20. Both teams trot out impressive defenses while having some issues on offense. The Huskies are 110th in offensive EPA, but the RedHawks aren’t too much better at 90th.
However, the unit-level matchups will decide this game. Miami is a poor rushing team, as evidenced by its rush EPA (111th) and rush success rate (110th). It will be even tougher sledding against the Huskies, who allow just 114.2 rushing yards per game (26th) and 3.5 per rush (24th).
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
“That’s OK. Miami’s offense runs through QB Brett Gabbert anyway.” Well, it’s an even less favorable matchup for the RedHawks’ passing attack. NIU is third in defensive dropback success rate and 33rd in EPA per dropback.
So yeah, it will be difficult for Gabbert and Co. to put up points, but I’ve buried the lede a bit here — the Huskies can’t score themselves. They run the ball at the 13th-highest rate in the nation (39.6%) but are only 96th in EPA per rush. Plus, QB Ethan Hampton doesn’t push the ball downfield often and has had some turnover luck.
Take Miami’s talented defense to suffocate NIU and give the offense favorable field positions in a low-scoring win straight up and against the spread.
Prediction: Miami (OH) 20, Northern Illinois 10
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