The North Texas Mean Green and Texas State Bobcats have faced off 39 times throughout history, with North Texas owning a 29-7-3 advantage. However, the two haven’t met since Mean Green won three straight from 1992 to 1994, with both programs a part of the Southland Conference.
Who will come out on top this time around? Our North Texas vs. Texas State prediction breaks down everything you need to know — from the latest betting odds to what’s at stake for both teams as they battle in the SERVPRO First Responder Bowl.
North Texas vs. Texas State First Responder Bowl Betting Preview
All North Texas vs. Texas State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Dec. 20, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Texas State -4 - Spread
Texas State -10.5 - Moneyline
Texas State -440, North Texas +340 - Over/Under
64.5 points - Game Time
4:00 p.m. ET, Friday, Jan. 3 - Location
Gerald J. Ford Stadium | Dallas - Predicted Weather at Kick
TBD - How To Watch
ESPN
North Texas is 0-5 against the spread entering this one, but it’s not as if Texas State has been all that dominant in that regard. Its 3-4 ATS as a double-digit point favorite and 1-3 ATS in out-of-conference games this season.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
If you made a bet solely on trends, it would be on the total:
- The over hit in seven of the Mean Green’s last 10 contests.
- The over cashed in four of the Bobcats’ last five.
North Texas’ Winning Probability
Eric Morris’ first season at the helm resulted in a 5-7 campaign, but Year 2 was just a tad more fruitful, as North Texas went 6-6, earning a bowl berth. The first-time head coach has enabled one of the most high-scoring offenses in the nation, continuing to build his résumé as a QB guru.
- at Texas State: 38.9%
Texas State’s Winning Probability
The Bobcats entered the 2023 campaign fresh off their eighth consecutive losing season. But head coach G.J. Kinne has proven to be the answer. He’s led the program to back-to-back 7-5 regular seasons and First Responder Bowl appearances, earning him a lucrative contract extension.
- vs. North Texas: 61.1%
Prediction for North Texas vs. Texas State
Neither defense is lighting the world on fire. North Texas ranks 93rd in EPA per play, while Texas State’s late-season struggles saw them surrender 52 and 38 points in their last two outings.
With QB Chandler Morris hitting the portal, the Mean Green will turn to freshman Drew Mestemaker, who has thrown just four passes all year.
Meanwhile, Texas State, led by Jordan McCloud, boasts an explosive offense averaging 474 yards per game — fifth-best in the FBS — perfectly positioned to exploit North Texas’ porous defense, which allows an FBS-worst 456 yards per contest.
MORE: 2024 College Football Bowl Game Opt-Out Tracker
Momentum also heavily favors the Bobcats. Texas State has won three of its last four outright and against the spread, while North Texas hasn’t covered since Oct. 19, dropping five of six along the way.
Texas State opened as 7.5-point favorites, and with their dynamic offense scoring 45 points per game over the past month, the line movement in their appears justified. As long as McCloud is at the helm, the Bobcats should have no issue dispatching the not-so-Mean Green.
Prediction: Texas State 45, North Texas 16
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