The North Carolina Tar Heels own a 66-59-4 advantage over the Virginia Cavaliers, but that lead could dwindle in Week 9. After winning last year’s matchup 31-27, the Cavaliers hope to make it a streak in 2024.
Gear up for the Saturday night duel with a deep dive into the latest odds, spread analysis, and our North Carolina vs. Virginia prediction.
North Carolina vs. Virginia Betting Preview
All North Carolina vs. Virginia odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Oct. 23, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Virginia -6.5 - Spread
Virginia -4 - Moneyline
Virginia -185, North Carolina +154 - Over/Under
59 points - Game Time
Noon ET, Saturday, Oct. 26 - Location
Scott Stadium | Charlottesville, Va. - Predicted Weather at Kick
69 degrees, 4 mph winds, partly cloudy - How To Watch
The CW Network
The line opened at Virginia -5 with a 57.5-point total and has moved slightly. Not only do Cavaliers bettors have a juicier number, but North Carolina is winless against the spread this season and is 1-6 ATS in the last seven games vs. Virginia. Meanwhile, UVA is 4-1 ATS on the year.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
In terms of the total, the total is the hot pick, as it has hit in:
- Five of UNC’s last six Week 9 games.
- Eight of UVA’s last 12.
- Four of the last six North Carolina-Virginia contests.
North Carolina’s Winning Probability%
The Tar Heels aren’t just looking for their first ACC win this season; they’re looking for their first win since Sept. 14. Unfortunately, neither is likely to come in Week 9, as UNC owns a 33.1% win probability against Virginia.
On the bright side, three of North Carolina’s final four games are above 47%, meaning that elusive victory may not be far off.
- at Florida State: 50.0%
- vs. Wake Forest: 52.8%
- at Boston College: 32.3%
- vs. NC State: 47.2%
Virginia’s Winning Probability
Virginia is on its own losing streak, falling to Louisville and Clemson in back-to-back weeks. And while their Week 9 win probability sits at 66.9%, the rest-of-season outlook is far more dubious:
- at Pittsburgh: 26.6%
- at Notre Dame: 12.8%
- vs. SMU: 34.3%
- at Virginia Tech: 32.3%
Prediction for North Carolina vs. Virginia
Last week proved to be devasting for both of these teams, albeit in vastly different ways.
After tying the score at 34 apiece with under a minute left against Georgia Tech, the Tar Heels allowed RB Jamal Haynes to rumble 68 yards for the go-ahead TD. On the flip side, the Cavaliers were never really in the game against Clemson, posting 21 of their 31 total points in the fourth quarter with the contest already out of reach.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Clearly, UNC and UVA can score, with Virginia generating 30+ in four of seven bouts and North Carolina hitting that mark in four of its last six. However, the defenses have let the programs down, with the Tar Heels (30.4, 107th) and the Cavaliers (25.7, 78th) ranking in the bottom fourth of the nation.
Expect the betting trends to continue, with Virginia securing the win and covering the spread while the total comfortably pushes past the over.
Prediction: Virginia 34, North Carolina 27
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