The North Carolina Tar Heels open their schedule just a little earlier than most of the other teams in college football as they start Thursday with a rare true road non-conference game against the Minnesota Golden Gophers
So, using CFN’s Strength of Schedule metric, we take a look at the North Carolina football predictions for the 2024 season, including the projected wins and losses.
North Carolina Week 1 Prediction
Before we get into their full season, let’s take a look at the Tar Heels’ season-opening matchup against Minnesota.
In one of the premier matchups of Week 1, the Tar Heels travel to Minneapolis for a key non-conference matchup against the Golden Gophers.
Vegas’ line reflects how much of a toss-up this game truly is, as the Tar Heels opened as 1.5-point underdogs. The CFN Strength of Schedule model differs a bit, and it looks like the public agrees, as the Tar Heels are 1.5-point favorites as of this writing.
North Carolina (-1.5) @ Minnesota (Projection: W)
But while it’s projected as a win, the model isn’t very sure of itself. The Tar Heels won this game about 50% of the time in our simulations, making it a true toss-up.
RELATED: 2024 North Carolina Tar Heels Football Roster
The Tar Heels have several of these coin-flip games, five in which the teams are within seven points of one another on the projected line. If the Tar Heels win a few of those, they’ll be able to play into the top 25.
However, if the Tar Heels drop most of those, they’ll be fighting for a spot in a bowl game.
This is not a specific score projection; rather, it’s just a number created with more than a few factors. The CFN Strength of Schedule looks at the makeup of every roster, including transfers and freshmen, as well as factors such as coaching staff, home-field advantage, roster projections, continuity, and strength at marquee positions.
These numbers can also change as the season unfolds. For example, some of the win probabilities for Georgia Tech have moved following the Yellow Jackets’ upset win over Florida State, including the line for North Carolina. Formerly -2.5, our model moved that to -1.5 following Georgia Tech’s victory in Ireland.
While these numbers are not meant to be exact lines, they give a glimpse into the win probability of each game. For example, though our model favors North Carolina against both Minnesota (-1.5) and Charlotte (-17.5), the Tar Heels have a much higher win probability against the 49ers than the Golden Gophers.
Use that information to look at the remaining projections for North Carolina’s 2024 football schedule.
Projected North Carolina Tar Heels Record
Projected Wins: 10
Projected Losses: 2
Projected North Carolina Win-Loss Predictions
North Carolina (-1.5) @ Minnesota (Projection: W)
North Carolina (-17.5) vs. Charlotte (Projection: W)
North Carolina (-26.5) vs. NC Central (Projection: W)
North Carolina (-17.5) vs. James Madison (Projection: W)
North Carolina (-4) @ Duke (Projection: W)
North Carolina (-8.5) vs. Pittsburgh (Projection: W)
North Carolina (-1.5) vs. Georgia Tech (Projection: W)
North Carolina (-5.5) @ Virginia (Projection: W)
North Carolina (11) @ Florida State (Projection: L)
North Carolina (-8.5) vs. Wake Forest (Projection: W)
North Carolina (-0.5) @ Boston College (Projection: W)
North Carolina (0.5) vs. NC State (Projection: L)
Take the CFN Playoff Predictor for a spin yourself: College Football Playoff Predictor
College Football Network has you covered with the latest news and analysis, rankings, transfer portal information, top 10 returning players, the 2024 college football season schedule, and much more!