Week 12 doesn’t offer many marquee matchups, pushing bettors to dig deeper for opportunities. Vegas seems to struggle with a solid read on the Texas A&M Aggies, so could their matchup against the similarly named New Mexico State Aggies be a chance to cash in?
Check out which side we’re backing in this New Mexico State vs. Texas A&M prediction.
New Mexico State vs. Texas A&M Betting Preview
All New Mexico State vs. Texas A&M odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Texas A&M -32 - Spread
Texas A&M -39 - Moneyline
N/A - Over/Under
54.5 points - Game Time
Nov. 16, 7:45 p.m. ET - Location
Kyle Field Stadium | College Station, Tex. - Predicted Weather at Kick
69 degrees, clear, 8 mph winds - How To Watch
SEC Network
Vegas hasn’t had a great read on Texas A&M, as the Aggies are just 3-6 against the spread, with only two games coming within single digits of the number set by the sportsbooks. This is a big number, and bettors should be wary, even against a terrible team.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With a total of 54 points and a spread of 39 points, Vegas has little faith in New Mexico State’s offense, implying a final score close to 46-7 in favor of Texas A&M.
New Mexico State’s Winning Probability
New Mexico State will be overmatched Saturday and CFN’s Football Playoff Meter is giving this as one of the biggest spreads we’ve seen all season. These Aggies have just a 0.1% chance to win outright. However, they’ll have a couple of winnable games to end the year.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for New Mexico State in the 2024 season:
- at Texas A&M: 0.1%
- at Middle Tennessee State: 36.9%
- vs. UTEP: 48.8%
Texas A&M’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Texas A&M has a 99.9% chance of beating New Mexico State at home. According to our metric, Texas A&M’s season will come down to the finale against Texas, as the Aggies are huge favorites in the next two.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for Texas A&M in the 2024 season:
- vs. New Mexico State: 99.9%
- at Auburn: 83%
- vs. Texas: 38.1%
Prediction for New Mexico State vs. Texas A&M
This game should never be in doubt, but Texas A&M’s quarterback situation has my attention. The Aggies benched Conner Weigman during their win over LSU, giving Marcel Reed a chance to shine. Reed carved up the Tigers with his legs—which, given LSU’s defensive struggles, isn’t exactly a Herculean feat.
That said, Reed had a tough time against South Carolina’s relentless pass rush, as most do. Still, he seems to be the guy moving forward. It makes sense, given his age and mobility, but it does raise questions. The Aggies want to develop their quarterback for the future, but with Weigman just a redshirt sophomore, will he be content riding the bench?
Or will Texas A&M try to keep him engaged by giving him more snaps than a typical backup would see in a blowout?
These are the questions I’m mulling over.
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If Reed is the starter beyond this season, it makes sense to get him reps against non-SEC competition now. It’s the reality of today’s college football—coaches are managing their rosters on the fly.
After facing five straight SEC defenses, and with two more on deck, I’m curious to see how Mike Elko divvies up playing time across the board.
As for the actual game? There’s not much to dissect. New Mexico State ranks 110th in scoring offense and 129th in scoring defense. They’re a shell of last season’s team after losing key contributors like Diego Pavia, Jerry Kill, and Eli Stowers during the offseason.
The Aggies should dominate in the trenches, as New Mexico State doesn’t have the depth or talent to match any SEC team up front, let alone Texas A&M. QB play has been sporadic at best for the Aggies’ opponent, leaving little reason to expect a competitive matchup.
That said, I expect Elko to turn to the backups early, with two grueling games looming to close the season. For Texas A&M, it’s less about covering a massive spread and more about staying healthy.
If you’re itching to bet the spread, New Mexico State might be the play. But the smarter choice is likely the under, as Texas A&M’s second-string defense should be more than enough to stifle New Mexico State’s sputtering offense.
Prediction: Texas A&M 41, New Mexico State 6
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