Week 12 is lacking marquee matchups, leaving bettors to look to other games to find an edge. Vegas doesn’t have a good read on the Texas A&M Aggies, so can bettors look to their game against the similarly named New Mexico State Aggies to make money?
Find out which way we lean in this New Mexico State vs. Texas A&M prediction.
New Mexico State vs. Texas A&M Betting Preview
All New Mexico State vs. Texas A&M odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Nov. 13, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Texas A&M -32 - Spread
Texas A&M -39 - Moneyline
N/A - Over/Under
54 points - Game Time
Nov. 16, 7:45 p.m. ET - Location
Kyle Field Stadium | College Station, Tex. - Predicted Weather at Kick
69 degrees, clear, 8 mph winds - How To Watch
SEC Network
Vegas hasn’t had a great read on Texas A&M, as the Aggies are just 3-6 against the spread, with only two games coming within single digits of the number set by the sportsbooks. This is a big number, and bettors should be wary, even against a terrible team.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With a total of 54 points and a spread of 39 points, Vegas has little faith in New Mexico State’s offense, implying a final score close to 46-7 in favor of Texas A&M.
New Mexico State’s Winning Probability
New Mexico State will be overmatched Saturday and CFN’s Football Playoff Meter is giving this as one of the biggest spreads we’ve seen all season. These Aggies have just a 0.1% chance to win outright. However, they’ll have a couple of winnable games to end the year.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for New Mexico State in the 2024 season:
- at Texas A&M: 0.1%
- at Middle Tennessee State: 36.9%
- vs. UTEP: 48.8%
Texas A&M’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Texas A&M has a 99.9% chance of beating New Mexico State at home. According to our metric, Texas A&M’s season will come down to the finale against Texas, as the Aggies are huge favorites in the next two.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for Texas A&M in the 2024 season:
- vs. New Mexico State: 99.9%
- at Auburn: 83%
- vs. Texas: 38.1%
Prediction for New Mexico State vs. Texas A&M
While this game should never be in doubt, I’m intrigued by Texas A&M’s quarterback situation. The Aggies benched Conner Weigman in the win over LSU, as Marcel Reed came in and tore the Tigers apart with his legs, which isn’t a difficult thing to do.
However, Reed struggled against South Carolina’s pass rush, as everyone has. He seems to be the guy going forward, which would make sense, given his age and mobility.
The Aggies want to develop their quarterback for the future, but Weigman is just a redshirt sophomore. Will he be content to ride the bench? Do the Aggies try to keep him warm by playing him more than a backup quarterback would typically play in a blowout?
These are some questions I’m pondering.
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If Reed is the starter going forward — especially beyond this season — it will help him to get extra reps against non-SEC competition.
It’s the new reality in college football that coaches have to manage their roster in the middle of the season. So after playing five straight SEC defenses and with two more coming in the next weeks, I’m interested to see how Mike Elko allocates playing time at every position.
In terms of actual game analysis, there’s not much. New Mexico State has the 110th-ranked scoring offense and 129th-ranked scoring defense. They are sorely missing Diego Pavia, Jerry Kill, and Eli Stowers, among others who left the program in the offseason.
There have been flashes, but the QB play has been inconsistent at best, and New Mexico State can’t match up with any SEC team on the lines, especially not Texas A&M.
That being said, I think Elko goes to the backups early in preparation for two physical games to end the season. For the Aggies, it’s about staying healthy, not covering a huge spread.
Take New Mexico State if you’re dying to pick against the spread, but the under is likely the better play, as the second-string Texas A&M defense should be able to stop New Mexico State’s struggling offense.
Prediction: Texas A&M 41, New Mexico State 6
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