Wednesday night brings together two teams who played out a close-fought encounter to bring the curtain down on the 2023 regular season, but the Jacksonville State Gamecocks and New Mexico State Aggies have suffered shaky starts this season and are currently on completely different trajectories. So, who wins on Wednesday night?
Our New Mexico State vs. Jacksonville State prediction contains the answers, the latest betting odds, and the Aggies and Gamecocks’ winning probabilities for the rest of the 2024 college football campaign.
New Mexico State vs. Jacksonville State Betting Preview
All New Mexico State vs. Jacksonville State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Oct. 7, 2024.
- CFN FPM Spread
Jacksonville State -5 - Spread
Jacksonville State -20.5 - Moneyline
Jacksonville State -1450, New Mexico State +850 - Over/Under
59 points - Game time
7:30 p.m. ET - Location
AmFirst Stadium | Jacksonville, AL - Predicted Weather at Kick
51.8 degrees, clear, 5.6 mph winds - How to Watch
ESPN2
Just three points separated the Aggies and Gamecocks last November, but the New Mexico State vs. Jacksonville State odds showcase how far the two have drifted apart since then. The line started in the late teens and, with just hours until kickoff, has drifted out to almost three touchdowns in the Gamecocks’ favor. The moneyline has shifted a little toward Jacksonville State too, while the points total has shifted to 59 points.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The betting trends favor the Gamecocks, with the Aggies only covering the spread just once this season. They’ve failed to cover as a favorite, single-digit underdog, and double-digit dog in a difficult campaign. Meanwhile, Jacksonville State has covered in their last two. When they win, Rich Rodriguez’s team covers the spread. Meanwhile, the two teams are a combined 5-2 (and a push) covering the points total this fall.
New Mexico State’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, New Mexico State has a 36.4% chance of winning this CUSA clash. The Aggies have been projected to lose every one of their FBS games this season, and so it has come to pass. The only win for Tony Sanchez’s team this year game against Southeast Missouri State.
Here is how New Mexico State’s remaining schedule looks in terms of winning probability:
- at Jacksonville State: 36.4%
- vs. Louisiana Tech: 50%
- at FIU: 47.5%
- vs. Western Kentucky: 22.6%
- at Texas A&M: 3.3%
- at Middle Tennessee: 50%
- vs. UTEP: 54.3%
Jacksonville State’s Winning Probability
The Gamecocks are in a much better run of form and enter this game with a 63.6% chance of getting another win. It has been a slow start to the season for a team that outperformed expectations in their FBS debut a year ago, losing their first three games. However, they’ve won two on the bounce and look to continue that form moving forward.
Here are Jacksonville State’s remaining winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. New Mexico State: 63.6%
- vs. Middle Tennessee: 63.6%
- at Liberty: 24.7%
- at Louisiana Tech: 58.9%
- vs. FIU: 63.5%
- vs. Sam Houston: 49.6%
- at Western Kentucky: 35.4%
Prediction for New Mexico State vs. Jacksonville State
It’s been a dismal start to the 2024 college football campaign for the Aggies, with New Mexico State traveling to Alabama with a 1-4 record and without a conference win. While Jacksonville State was slow out the blocks, the Gamecocks are gathering momentum and confidence as the season unfolds.
Can Sanchez salvage anything from this season with a win on Wednesday night? Or are Jacksonville State simply too strong to be stopped? Who has the upper hand, and where will the critical battles unfold?
Let’s not beat about the bush here; Jacksonville State has a very clear upper hand on both sides of the ball. New Mexico State is a shadow of the team that stormed the conference last fall. As former quarterback Diego Pavia is making college football headlines, leading Vanderbilt to a win over Alabama, the Aggies have one of the worst offenses in the country, ranking 116th for scoring offense despite putting 40 points on the board last week.
The old adage that if you have two quarterbacks you have none rings particularly true for New Mexico State. Santino Marucci and Parker Awad have split snaps this season, seperated by four pass attempts but both completing less than 50% of their passes while throwing two touchdowns and two interceptions apiece. The ground game has more life, with running back Seth McGowan averaging 5.8 yards per carry.
The ground game might gain a little traction against a Jacksonville State defense that has given up 11 touchdowns to the run, but can they keep pace against the Gamecocks vaunted ground game? No CUSA team has more yards per carry (5.21) than Rodriguez’s fast-paced offense, and they rank tied-eighth in the nation with 17 rushing touchdowns.
With running backs Tre Stewart (354 yards, eight touchdowns) and Anwar Lewis (two touchdowns) combined with the dangerous dual-threat capability of quarterback Tyler Huff (445 rushing yards, 7.1 yards per carry, five touchdowns), New Mexico State likely finds themselves in a situation they’re not equipped to defend. The Aggies have allowed 5.74 yards per carry, 16 touchdowns, and 233.20 yards per game to the run.
Advantage Gamecocks.
Prediction: New Mexico State 23, Jacksonville State 45
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