Week 12 lacks marquee matchups, leaving bettors to sift through the slate for hidden opportunities. Vegas has had a tough time getting a solid read on the Texas A&M Aggies this season, so could their showdown with the similarly named New Mexico State Aggies be a chance to capitalize?
Find out which side we’re backing in this New Mexico State vs. Texas A&M prediction.
New Mexico State vs. Texas A&M Betting Preview
All New Mexico State vs. Texas A&M odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 16, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Texas A&M -32 - Spread
Texas A&M -39 - Moneyline
N/A - Over/Under
54 points - Game Time
Nov. 16, 7:45 p.m. ET - Location
Kyle Field Stadium | College Station, Tex. - Predicted Weather at Kick
69 degrees, clear, 8 mph winds - How To Watch
SEC Network
Vegas hasn’t had a great read on Texas A&M, as the Aggies are just 3-6 against the spread, with only two games coming within single digits of the number set by the sportsbooks. This is a big number, and bettors should be wary, even against a terrible team.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With a total of 54 points and a spread of 39 points, Vegas has little faith in New Mexico State’s offense, implying a final score close to 46-7 in favor of Texas A&M.
New Mexico State’s Winning Probability
New Mexico State will be overmatched Saturday and CFN’s Football Playoff Meter is giving this as one of the biggest spreads we’ve seen all season. These Aggies have just a 0.1% chance to win outright. However, they’ll have a couple of winnable games to end the year.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for New Mexico State in the 2024 season:
- at Texas A&M: 0.1%
- at Middle Tennessee State: 36.9%
- vs. UTEP: 48.8%
Texas A&M’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Texas A&M has a 99.9% chance of beating New Mexico State at home. According to our metric, Texas A&M’s season will come down to the finale against Texas, as the Aggies are huge favorites in the next two.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for Texas A&M in the 2024 season:
- vs. New Mexico State: 99.9%
- at Auburn: 83%
- vs. Texas: 38.1%
Prediction for New Mexico State vs. Texas A&M
This game should never be in doubt, but Texas A&M’s quarterback situation has my attention. During their win over LSU, the Aggies benched Conner Weigman and gave Marcel Reed the reins. Reed showcased his mobility, carving up LSU’s defense with his legs—though that’s not exactly Herculean given the Tigers’ defensive struggles.
That said, Reed struggled against South Carolina’s relentless pass rush, as most do. Still, it looks like he’s the guy moving forward. It makes sense given his age and athleticism, but it does raise questions.
With Weigman just a redshirt sophomore, will he be content riding the bench? Or will Texas A&M keep him engaged by giving him more snaps than a typical backup might get in a blowout?
These are the questions I’m mulling over.
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If Reed is the future at quarterback, it’s smart to get him reps against non-SEC competition now. That’s the reality of college football today—coaches are managing rosters on the fly.
After facing five straight SEC defenses and with two more looming, I’m curious how Mike Elko will manage playing time across the board.
As for the game itself? There’s not much to dissect. New Mexico State ranks 110th in scoring offense and 129th in scoring defense. They’re a shadow of last year’s team after losing key contributors like Diego Pavia, Jerry Kill, and Eli Stowers in the offseason.
Texas A&M should dominate in the trenches, as New Mexico State doesn’t have the depth or talent to compete with any SEC team up front, let alone the Aggies. Their quarterback play has been inconsistent at best, leaving little reason to expect a close contest.
That said, I expect Elko to turn to the backups early, with two tough games remaining on the schedule. For Texas A&M, this game is less about covering a massive spread and more about staying healthy.
If you’re itching to bet the spread, New Mexico State might be the smarter play. But the best choice is likely the under, as Texas A&M’s second-string defense should have no trouble stifling New Mexico State’s sputtering offense.
Prediction: Texas A&M 41, New Mexico State 6
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