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    Nevada vs. UNLV Prediction: Hajj-Malik Williams Pushes Rebels Into MWC Championship Game

    The Rebels control their destiny, but can the Wolf Pack make this a competitive battle? Our Nevada vs. UNLV prediction breaks down their potential path to victory.

    The UNLV Rebels enter the 2024 Battle for Nevada with everything on the line, controlling their own destiny. But the Nevada Wolf Pack would love nothing more than to play spoiler as these two rivals clash for the Fremont Cannon.

    Our Nevada vs. UNLV prediction breaks down the latest odds, lines, and picks for a pivotal Mountain West showdown that could carry College Football Playoff implications.

    CFN CFB Playoff Predictor
    College Football Network’s College Football Playoff Predictor is a tool that allows you to play out various weekly scenarios to see how the CFP picture changes with each scenario.

    Nevada vs. UNLV Betting Preview

    All Nevada vs. UNLV odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 30, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.

    • CFN FPM Spread
      UNLV -19.5
    • Spread
      UNLV -17.5
    • Moneyline
      Nevada +575, UNLV -850
    • Over/Under
      55.5 points
    • Game Time
      8:00 p.m. ET
    • Location
      Allegiant Stadium | Paradise, Nev.
    • Predicted Weather at Kick
      59 degrees, mostly cloudy, 1 mph winds (indoors)
    • How To Watch
      CBS Sports Network

    The Battle for Nevada will be played for the 50th time in 2024, with the Wolf Pack leading the all-time series 28-21. However, it is the Rebels who head into this season’s matchup with all the momentum.

    MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor

    UNLV is 9-2 on the season and ranked 22nd by the playoff committee. Meanwhile, Nevada has a 3-9 record and has lost five straight games. Jeff Choate’s team is looking to avoid losing 10 games in a season for the third successive year, but it will have its work cut out against Barry Odom’s side, which has won nine games for the second straight season.

    Unsurprisingly, the betting lines reflect UNLV’s dominance. The Rebels are -18 with the oddsmakers, while the CFN FPM makes them even stronger favorites and has the spread set at -19.75.

    Nevada’s Winning Probability

    The CFN FPM gives the Wolf Pack little chance of winning the Battle for Nevada, with the metric giving a 6.9% chance of victory to Nevada on Saturday. It reflects a disappointing season for Nevada, which only defeated the Troy Trojans, Eastern Washington Eagles, and Oregon State Beavers in 2024.

    at UNLV: 6.9%

    UNLV’s Winning Probability

    UNLV is hugely favored to retain the Fremont Cannon at home in Allegiant Stadium. The CFN FPM gives the Rebels a 93.1% chance of defeating their in-state rivals and progressing to the Mountain West Conference Football Championship Game.

    vs. Nevada: 93.1%

    Prediction for Nevada vs. UNLV

    These two teams flat-out don’t like each other. While UNLV is clearly the superior squad, they can’t afford to overlook their in-state rivals. Nevada would relish nothing more than derailing the Rebels’ season.

    For UNLV, everything is on the line. A win over the Wolf Pack on Saturday essentially punches their ticket to the Mountain West Championship Game, likely against Boise State. With tiebreakers over Colorado State already in hand, the Rebels control their own destiny.

    And this isn’t just about a conference title. With Tulane’s Thanksgiving loss to Memphis, the Mountain West champion is poised to secure the Group of Five’s highest-ranking and a coveted spot in the College Football Playoff.

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    This adds even more weight to the matchup as UNLV looks to keep the Fremont Cannon while putting their high-powered offense on full display. They have the firepower to overwhelm Nevada, especially in Allegiant Stadium.

    The Wolf Pack’s Achilles’ heel? Defending the run. Nevada ranks 103rd nationally, allowing 180.5 rushing yards per game—bad news against a Rebels team boasting the ninth-best rushing attack in the country, averaging 224.4 yards per game.

    UNLV’s backfield trio of Jai’Den Thomas, Kylin James, and Greg Burrell has been a nightmare for opponents, with Thomas closing in on 700 yards this season. Add quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams, who’s rushed for eight touchdowns, and you’ve got a ground game that can wear down any defense.

    For Nevada to pull off the upset, they’ll need to hit on explosive plays and outperform their pedestrian 21.5 points per game. That’s no small task. The Wolf Pack’s strength lies in the red zone, where they rank 23rd nationally in scoring efficiency. But they’ll face a stiff challenge against a UNLV defense that has been one of the best Nevada has encountered, holding opponents to just 0.322 points per play.

    If the Rebels stick to their strengths, they should take care of business. But in a rivalry this heated, nothing is guaranteed.

    Prediction: UNLV 34, Nevada 20

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