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    Nevada vs. Boise State Prediction: Ashton Jeanty Returns to Form, Broncos Win Big

    The Wolf Pack and Broncos haven’t exactly had a competitive rivalry since 2000, and our Nevada vs. Boise State prediction suggests this matchup won’t be any different.

    The Nevada Wolf Pack have managed to take down the Boise State Broncos only twice since 1999. Their most recent meeting? A lopsided 41-3 victory for the Broncos. Can Nevada throw a wrench in Boise’s College Football Playoff aspirations, or will it simply bolster the Broncos’ résumé?

    Our Nevada vs. Boise State preview dives into the matchup, offering key betting insights to guide your picks.

    CFN CFB Playoff Predictor
    College Football Network’s College Football Playoff Predictor is a tool that allows you to play out various weekly scenarios to see how the CFP picture changes with each scenario.

    Nevada vs. Boise State Betting Preview

    All Nevada vs. Boise State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 9, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.

    • CFN FPM Spread
      Boise State -20.5
    • Spread
      Boise State -23.5
    • Moneyline
      Boise State -2400, Nevada +1200
    • Over/Under
      60.5 points
    • Game Time
      8:00 p.m. ET, Saturday, Nov. 9
    • Location
      Albertsons Stadium | Boise, Idaho
    • Predicted Weather at Kick
      48 degrees, 4 mph winds, mostly cloudy
    • How To Watch
      Fox

    Although the Broncos have owned the Wolf Pack in the all-time series, Nevada has at least kept it close, going 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 meetings.

    That will be a tall task in Week 11, with BSU going 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games and checking as 24-point favorites.

    MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator

    While the under has hit in seven of the last nine Nevada-Boise State battles, the 2024 iteration features two high-scoring programs.

    The total has gone over in five of Nevada’s last six contests and nine of Boise’s last 11.

    Nevada’s Winning Probability

    The Wolf Pack have already bested their previous two seasons with three wins, but they’re on a three-game losing streak. Technically, a bowl game is still within reach, but they would need to win out despite having sub-15% win probabilities in two of their final three contests.

    • at Boise State: 6.5%
    • vs. Air Force: 73.8%
    • at UNLV: 13.2%

    Boise State’s Winning Probability

    At 7-1, the Broncos are already bowl-bound but have their sights set on more. To make the CFP, they would almost assuredly have to be undefeated. According to the FPM, that shouldn’t be too difficult, as BSU owns over an 80% win probability in each of their last four matchups.

    • vs. Nevada: 93.5%
    • at San Jose State: 85.1%
    • at Wyoming: 93.7%
    • vs. Oregon State: 82.1%

    Prediction for Nevada vs. Boise State

    All signs point to Ashton Jeanty bouncing back in a big way this week.

    He’s another week removed from the off-arm elbow injury that’s kept him braced up and is coming off two “off” performances — if you can even call them that — with a 31-149-2 rushing line against San Diego State and a 33-128-1 showing against UNLV.

    Jeanty has a prime opportunity to feast against a defense ranked 80th against the run, allowing 156.4 yards per game in Week 11. That said, Boise State’s passing attack might face some resistance, as Nevada’s secondary sits at 55th in EPA per pass and 33rd in explosive pass rate.

    MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor

    On the other side of the ball, Nevada’s offense has been efficient on third downs, ranking ninth in conversion rate (50.4%) and 34th in success rate. But they’ll run into a buzzsaw in Boise State, who leads the nation in sacks per game (4.75). And while the Wolf Pack can move the ball, they’re their own worst enemy, averaging 8.3 penalties per game (124th).

    Expect a slower-paced matchup capped off with Boise State extending their home win streak to 10. The under should hit, with Nevada narrowly covering the massive spread.

    Prediction: Boise State 38, Nevada 20

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