The Nevada Wolf Pack have defeated the Boise State Broncos just twice since 1999. Their last matchup? A 41-3 blowout in favor of the Broncos. Can Nevada play spoiler to Boise’s College Football Playoff hopes, or will it just add to their résumé?
Our Nevada vs. Boise State preview breaks down the matchup, giving you crucial betting insights to help shape your picks.
Nevada vs. Boise State Betting Preview
All Nevada vs. Boise State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Nov. 7, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Boise State -20.5 - Spread
Boise State -24 - Moneyline
Boise State -2400, Nevada +1200 - Over/Under
60.5 points - Game Time
8:00 p.m. ET, Saturday, Nov. 9 - Location
Albertsons Stadium | Boise, Idaho - Predicted Weather at Kick
48 degrees, 4 mph winds, mostly cloudy - How To Watch
Fox
Although the Broncos have owned the Wolf Pack in the all-time series, Nevada has at least kept it close, going 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 meetings.
That will be a tall task in Week 11, with BSU going 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games and checking as 24-point favorites.
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While the under has hit in seven of the last nine Nevada-Boise State battles, the 2024 iteration features two high-scoring programs.
The total has gone over in five of Nevada’s last six contests and nine of Boise’s last 11.
Nevada’s Winning Probability
The Wolf Pack have already bested their previous two seasons with three wins, but they’re on a three-game losing streak. Technically, a bowl game is still within reach, but they would need to win out despite having sub-15% win probabilities in two of their final three contests.
- at Boise State: 6.5%
- vs. Air Force: 73.8%
- at UNLV: 13.2%
Boise State’s Winning Probability
At 7-1, the Broncos are already bowl-bound but have their sights set on more. To make the CFP, they would almost assuredly have to be undefeated. According to the FPM, that shouldn’t be too difficult, as BSU owns over an 80% win probability in each of their last four matchups.
- vs. Nevada: 93.5%
- at San Jose State: 85.1%
- at Wyoming: 93.7%
- vs. Oregon State: 82.1%
Prediction for Nevada vs. Boise State
All signs point to an angry Ashton Jeanty game in this one. He’s another week removed from injuring his off-arm elbow (hence the brace) and is coming off back-to-back “off” weeks — 31-149-2 rushing line against the San Diego State Aztecs and 33-128-1 line against the UNLV Rebels.
He’ll have a chance to feast against a defense that’s 80th against the run (156.4 yards per game) in Week 11. However, the passing game could struggle some, as Nevada’s secondary ranks 55th in EPA per pass and 33rd in explosive pass rate.
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And while the Wolf Pack’s offense is ninth in third-down conversion rate (50.4%) and 34th in success rate, they face a Boise State squad that’s No. 1 in sacks per game (4.75). Plus, Nevada often shoots itself in the foot, averaging 8.3 penalties per game (124th).
The result should be a slower-paced contest ending in the Broncos’ 10th straight home victory, with the under cashing and Nevada narrowly covering the massive spread.
Prediction: Boise State 38, Nevada 20
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