Are the Nebraska Cornhuskers cursed?
The Power Four team with the longest bowl drought is one win away from postseason play. Their reward? Dates with the undefeated Indiana Hoosiers and the 5-1 Ohio State Buckeyes. After being blown out in their first attempt to reach six wins, can the Cornhuskers rebound to upset the Buckeyes? Find out which way we lean in this Nebraska vs. Ohio State prediction.
Nebraska vs. Ohio State Betting Preview
All Nebraska vs. Ohio State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Oct. 23, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter (FPM).
- CFN FPM Spread
Ohio State -18 - Spread
Ohio State -25.5 - Moneyline
Ohio State -2800, Nebraska +1300 - Over/Under
48.5 points - Game Time
Noon ET - Location
Ohio Stadium | Columbus, Ohio - Predicted Weather at Kick
55 degrees, cloudy, 8 mph winds - How To Watch
Fox
There hasn’t been a one-score game between these two teams since Nebraska lost in Columbus in 2018, and despite an improved 2024 Cornhuskers team, both the DraftKings odds and the CFN FPM seem to favor a one-sided encounter on Saturday. Ohio State has lost just once to Nebraska in 10 games, and there isn’t a ton of love for Matt Rhule’s men in betting circles.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
While there is next-to-no point in betting the Buckeyes’ moneyline unless as part of a parlay, can the rest of the Ohio State vs. Nebraska odds provide some value? The Cornhuskers (4-2-1) have a better record against the spread than Ohio State (3-3) but failed to cover the only other time they’ve been an underdog (against Indiana).
Nebraska’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, the Cornhuskers have just an 8.5% chance to win the game. This matchup represents Nebraska’s toughest challenge of the rest of the year, and it’s not particularly close. Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at Ohio State: 8.5%
- vs. UCLA: 83.5%
- at USC: 46.2%
- vs. Wisconsin: 53.8%
- at Iowa: 45.7%
If those win probabilities hold true, Nebraska would end the second season under head coach Rhule with an 8-4 record. That would be the best for the program since 2016, and result in a first bowl appearance for the Cornhuskers in eight years.
Ohio State’s Winning Probability
Conversely, the Buckeyes have a 91.5% chance to win the game. This game represents Ohio State’s third-easiest game of the rest of the year, with a huge game at Penn State looming large. Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. Nebraska: 91.5%
- at Penn State: 47.5%
- vs. Purdue: 99.5%
- at Northwestern: 95.6%
- vs. Indiana: 75.3%
- vs. Michigan: 90.4%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, Ohio State would end the 2024 season with a 10-2 record which would be considered a disappointment in Columbus. Depending on results around them, it could also see them miss out on the Big Ten Championship Game and impact a potential playoff berth.
Prediction for Nebraska vs. Ohio State
Our Football Playoff Meter is an unbelievable tool, and accurate as well, but if there’s one drawback to the metric, it’s that it often underestimates the spread in lopsided games.
Make no mistake: This is a game between two teams in different tiers of the sport. Despite some early success, Nebraska’s offense is one of the worst units in the Big Ten. The Cornhuskers have relied on a strong defense, as the offense has failed to reach 30 points in every game against Power Four competition, averaging just 20.2 points in such games.
They’ve struggled lately, scoring just five offensive touchdowns in their last three games and averaging fewer than 2.5 yards per rush in each of the last two games.
Fortunately for the Cornhuskers, an elite defense has kept them in most games, holding opponents to 10 or fewer points in all five wins. Indiana, however, had little issue scoring last week, putting up 56 points and averaging 8.4 yards a play.
Ohio State, outside of a close road loss to a very good Oregon team, has been dominant. The Buckeyes have had no issues moving the ball on strong defenses.
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All of those factors point to a huge Ohio State victory, but the Buckeyes play Penn State in Happy Valley next week. I’m not sure if this is a look-ahead spot as much as it’s a “get up early and play boring football in the second half” type of game for the Buckeyes.
For that reason, and that reason alone, I’m taking the Cornhuskers to cover. That will be on the backs of the defense, though, in an ugly, low-scoring second half.
Prediction: Ohio State 31, Nebraska 13
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