Rivalry week is packed with incredible storylines, and the Heroes Game matchup between the Iowa Hawkeyes and Nebraska Cornhuskers combines bitter on-field hatred with the celebration of off-field community contributions to take its place among the best of them. There’s nothing but pride to play for, but sometimes that’s all you need for an exciting encounter.
Who will prevail? Our Nebraska vs. Iowa prediction dives into all the details—from the latest betting odds to what’s at stake for both programs as they navigate the final game of the 2024 college football regular season.
Nebraska vs. Iowa Betting Preview
All Nebraska vs. Iowa odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Nov. 28, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Iowa -3 - Spread
Iowa -3.5 - Moneyline
Iowa -162, Nebraska +136 - Over/Under
40 points - Game Time
7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Kinnick Stadium | Iowa City, IA - Predicted Weather at Kick
24 degrees, clear, 7 mph winds - How To Watch
NBC
Friday night marks the 55th meeting of the Cornhuskers and Hawkeyes in the Heroes Game. Although Nebraska holds the head-to-head advantage with a 30-21-3 record, Iowa won a tight game in Lincoln last year and has been victorious in all but two of the previous 10 encounters. Kirk Ferentz’s team is favored to secure successive wins in the rivalry as kick-off draws near.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Although they’re favored, the spread line has actually decreased over the course of the week. From Monday to Thursday, it dropped a whole two points, coming to within a half-point of where the CFN FPM spread has sat from the get-go. Both teams are 6-5 against the spread this season, and depending on how the line moves in the next 24 hours, a push could be in play.
Nebraska’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM sees little separating these teams, but the Cornhuskers are on the road, making them three-point underdogs against the Hawkeyes. The metrics give them a 41.1% chance to win and clinch a winning season.
- at Iowa: 41.1%
Iowa’s Winning Probability
Iowa’s offense, while certainly not pretty, has been more effective this year than it’s been in a while, but the Hawkeyes are still just 7-4. They’ll look to get one more win Friday and will have a winning probability of 58.9%, per FPM.
- vs. Nebraska: 58.9%
Prediction for Nebraska vs. Iowa
The biggest question I’ve had about Iowa football this year is about whether the offense is better or just Kaleb Johnson is better.
The Hawkeyes are 7-1 when Johnson runs for 100 yards and 0-3 when he doesn’t. He’s run for at least 109 yards in every win this season, but the serious lack of passing threat has hurt the Hawkeyes against stout defenses.
Nebraska, too, has struggled against good defenses. The Cornhuskers averaged 16 points a game during their four-game losing streak, despite holding opponents below 30 in three of the four contests. The offense didn’t even really take a step back during that losing streak; the defense just wasn’t holding opponents to 10 points or less as it had in the Cornhuskers’ first five wins.
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While the defenses are the headliners here, whichever offense can be closest to average will win the game. In fact, it’s probably a race to 20.
If Johnson gets going, I like the Hawkeyes to eke one out. But if a strong Nebraska rushing defense thrives, the Cornhuskers should find enough offensively to win.
It’ll come down to mistakes. Dylan Raiola needs to hold onto the ball and do enough to stop Iowa’s safeties from creeping down into the box.
I think the Hawkeyes have the slightly better defensive unit and can win off Johnson’s individual effort. They’ll hold the ball and minimize possessions, making one long run the difference in the game.
In the elements, take the under, even if that means an ugly final score. It is Iowa and Nebraska, after all. The score is low enough, in fact, that I think the Cornhuskers will cover in a loss.
Prediction: Iowa 17, Nebraska 14
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