They’ve done it. The Nebraska Cornhuskers have gotten the monkey off their backs as they are bowl-eligible for the first time since 2017. Now, they’ll look to start a winning streak and clinch a winning season against a perplexing Iowa Hawkeyes team.
In a Big Ten matchup of similar teams, who wins — and who covers? Find out which way we lean in this Nebraska vs. Iowa prediction.
Nebraska vs. Iowa Betting Preview
All Nebraska vs. Iowa odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Nov. 25, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Iowa -3 - Spread
Iowa -5.5 - Moneyline
Iowa -198, Nebraska +164 - Over/Under
39.5 points - Game Time
Friday, Nov. 30, 7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Kinnick Stadium | Iowa City, Iowa - Predicted Weather at Kick
24 degrees, clear, 7 mph winds - How To Watch
NBC
There’s not much separating Iowa and Nebraska, and there’s not much showing up on offense, either. Despite promising offensive starts, one has reverted to its usual nonexistent self, while the other has been hot and cold all year.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The total shows the strength of the defenses and the offenses’ inconsistencies. A total of 39.5 points and a spread of Iowa -5.5 implies a final score close to 22-17 in favor of the Hawkeyes.
Nebraska’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM sees little separating these teams, but the Cornhuskers are on the road, making them three-point underdogs against the Hawkeyes. The metrics give them a 41.1% chance to win and clinch a winning season.
- at Iowa: 41.1%
Iowa’s Winning Probability
Iowa’s offense, while certainly not pretty, has been more effective this year than it’s been in a while, but the Hawkeyes are still just 7-4. They’ll look to get one more win Friday and will have a winning probability of 58.9%, per FPM.
- vs. Nebraska: 58.9%
Prediction for Nebraska vs. Iowa
The biggest question I’ve had about Iowa football this year is about whether the offense is better or just Kaleb Johnson is better.
The Hawkeyes are 7-1 when Johnson runs for 100 yards and 0-3 when he doesn’t. He’s run for at least 109 yards in every win this season, but the serious lack of passing threat has hurt the Hawkeyes against stout defenses.
Nebraska, too, has struggled against good defenses. The Cornhuskers averaged 16 points a game during their four-game losing streak, despite holding opponents below 30 in three of the four contests. The offense didn’t even really take a step back during that losing streak; the defense just wasn’t holding opponents to 10 points or less as it had in the Cornhuskers’ first five wins.
FREE: Sign up for the College Football Network Newsletter to receive unique stories from the world of college football directly to your inbox!
While the defenses are the headliners here, whichever offense can be closest to average will win the game. In fact, it’s probably a race to 20.
If Johnson gets going, I like the Hawkeyes to eke one out. But if a strong Nebraska rushing defense thrives, the Cornhuskers should find enough offensively to win.
It’ll come down to mistakes. Dylan Raiola needs to hold onto the ball and do enough to stop Iowa’s safeties from creeping down into the box.
I think the Hawkeyes have the slightly better defensive unit and can win off Johnson’s individual effort. They’ll hold the ball and minimize possessions, making one long run the difference in the game.
In the elements, take the under, even if that means an ugly final score. It is Iowa and Nebraska, after all. The score is low enough, in fact, that I think the Cornhuskers will cover in a loss.
Prediction: Iowa 17, Nebraska 14
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.