Don’t adjust your sets! Yes, it’s mid-October, and the Indiana Hoosiers are a 6-0 team with Big Ten title game aspirations. Meanwhile, a Nebraska Cornhuskers team that went 5-7 in the first year under Matt Rhule has already matched their 2023 win total with true freshman phenom Dylan Raiola under center.
Can the Hoosiers stay perfect against a strong Cornhuskers team? Our Nebraska vs. Indiana prediction examines the latest odds and offers a final score projection for this Big Ten tussle.
Nebraska vs. Indiana Betting Preview
All Nebraska vs. Indiana odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Oct. 16, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Indiana -9 - Spread
Indiana -6.5 - Moneyline
Indiana -238, Nebraska +195 - Over/Under
50.5 points - Game Time
Noon ET - Location
Memorial Stadium | Bloomington, IN - Predicted Weather at Kick
64 degrees, sunny, 3 mph winds - How To Watch
Fox
Home-field advantage. An unbeaten record. A winning head-to-head record against the Cornhuskers. Everything points toward Curt Cignetti’s blooming Indiana team, and the oddsmakers favor the Hoosiers. The spread has crept up through the week, but it still falls a little short of a CFN FPM line that gives Indiana a touchdown and change advantage over the Big Ten foe.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
After failing to cover in the season-opening win against the FIU Panthers, Indiana has been on fire, covering five straight with an average margin of victory of 32.7 points. They cover the spread, on average, by 12.3 points per game. Nebraska has been a single-digit underdog three teams this season, covering once (Colorado) with a push against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights.
Nebraska’s Winning Probability
The Cornhuskers are bigger underdogs with FPM than in Vegas. Nebraska has a 25.1% chance to win the game, per the metric, translating to an implied spread of about nine points. The Cornhuskers have a brutal schedule to end the year, as they’ll be underdogs in four of their remaining six games. Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at Indiana: 25.1%
- at Ohio State: 8.9%
- vs. UCLA: 87.8%
- at USC: 35.4%
- vs. Wisconsin: 63.1%
- at Iowa: 45.7%
Indiana’s Winning Probability
Conversely, the Hoosiers have a 74.9% chance to win the game, per FPM. The Hoosiers have a great chance for a huge year, as they’ll be favored in all but one remaining game. Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. Nebraska: 74.9%
- vs. Washington: 81.1%
- at Michigan State: 79.6%
- vs. Michigan: 62.6%
- at Ohio State: 20.1%
- vs. Purdue: 91.7%
Prediction for Nebraska vs. Indiana
While the Hoosiers have played a favorable schedule, their success in Year 1 under Cignetti is no fluke. Quarterback Kurtis Rourke has been fantastic, finally living up to his billing after a disappointing 2023 year with Ohio.
This will be Indiana’s best test, as the Nebraska defense is one of the best in the country. However, the Cornhusker offense has struggled against strong defenses, and while overshadowed, the Hoosier defense has been great.
The key is Nebraska freshman Dylan Raiola, who flashed elite potential early but has struggled recently. The difference in recent weeks has been that Nebraska’s defense can hold weaker units in check to keep games close.
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I have a ton of faith in Cignetti and his offense, which has scored 30 points in every game this season and 40 in five straight games. Nebraska can’t hope this game is 0-0 at the half like it has in recent weeks. If the Hoosiers get off to a good start, they’ve got the firepower to keep the foot on the gas and turn this into a blowout.
I’m a believer in Indiana. They’ll slip up at some point, but Nebraska’s offense isn’t the unit to push them. Don’t expect a sixth-straight 40-point output from the Hoosiers, but don’t be surprised if they can move the ball, even against a physical defense.
Give me the Hoosiers and the points, as I love this small line. Indiana will do a lot of the work to get this over as well. This is the week the Hoosiers are finally taken seriously.
Prediction: Indiana 34, Nebraska 20
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