Are the Nebraska Cornhuskers facing a curse?
The Power Four team with the longest active bowl drought is now just one victory away from securing a spot in the postseason. But the path ahead isn’t easy, with matchups against the undefeated Indiana Hoosiers and the 5-1 Ohio State Buckeyes looming.
After a blowout loss in their first shot at win number six, can the Cornhuskers bounce back and pull off an upset against the Buckeyes? Dive into our Nebraska vs. Ohio State prediction to see which side we favor.
Nebraska vs. Ohio State Betting Preview
All Nebraska vs. Ohio State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Oct. 24, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Ohio State -18 - Spread
Ohio State -25.5 - Moneyline
Ohio State -2800, Nebraska +1300 - Over/Under
48.5 points - Game Time
Noon ET - Location
Ohio Stadium | Columbus, Ohio - Predicted Weather at Kick
55 degrees, cloudy, 8 mph winds - How To Watch
Fox
There hasn’t been a one-score game between these two teams since Nebraska lost in Columbus in 2018, and despite an improved 2024 Cornhuskers team, both the DraftKings odds and the CFN FPM seem to favor a one-sided encounter on Saturday. Ohio State has lost just once to Nebraska in 10 games, and there isn’t a ton of love for Matt Rhule’s men in betting circles.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
While there is next-to-no point in betting the Buckeyes’ moneyline unless as part of a parlay, can the rest of the Ohio State vs. Nebraska odds provide some value? The Cornhuskers (4-2-1) have a better record against the spread than Ohio State (3-3) but failed to cover the only other time they’ve been an underdog (against Indiana).
Nebraska’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, the Cornhuskers have just an 8.5% chance to win the game. This matchup represents Nebraska’s toughest challenge of the rest of the year, and it’s not particularly close.
- at Ohio State: 8.5%
- vs. UCLA: 83.5%
- at USC: 46.2%
- vs. Wisconsin: 53.8%
- at Iowa: 45.7%
If those win probabilities hold true, Nebraska would end the second season under head coach Rhule with an 8-4 record. That would be the best for the program since 2016, and result in a first bowl appearance for the Cornhuskers in eight years.
Ohio State’s Winning Probability
Conversely, the Buckeyes have a 91.5% chance to win the game. This game represents Ohio State’s third-easiest game of the rest of the year, with a huge game at Penn State looming large.
- vs. Nebraska: 91.5%
- at Penn State: 47.5%
- vs. Purdue: 99.5%
- at Northwestern: 95.6%
- vs. Indiana: 75.3%
- vs. Michigan: 90.4%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, Ohio State would end the 2024 season with a 10-2 record which would be considered a disappointment in Columbus. Depending on results around them, it could also see them miss out on the Big Ten Championship Game and impact a potential playoff berth.
Prediction for Nebraska vs. Ohio State
Our Football Playoff Meter is an excellent and highly accurate tool, but it does have one limitation: it often underestimates the spread in games where the talent gap is significant.
Make no mistake, this matchup features two teams on different levels of the college football landscape. Despite some flashes of promise, Nebraska’s offense remains among the weakest in the Big Ten. The Cornhuskers have leaned heavily on their strong defense, as their offense has struggled, failing to reach 30 points in any game against Power Four opponents and averaging just 20.2 points in those matchups.
Recent struggles have been particularly glaring, with Nebraska managing just five offensive touchdowns over their last three games and averaging under 2.5 yards per carry in each of the last two outings.
Fortunately for Nebraska, their defense has kept them competitive, holding opponents to 10 or fewer points in all five wins. Yet, Indiana had no trouble finding the end zone last week, racking up 56 points and averaging 8.4 yards per play.
Ohio State, aside from a narrow road loss to a strong Oregon team, has been dominant. The Buckeyes have consistently moved the ball against even the toughest defenses.
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All signs point to a decisive Ohio State victory, but with a clash against Penn State in Happy Valley looming next week, this could be less about looking ahead and more about getting a lead early and coasting through the second half.
For that reason, I’m taking the Cornhuskers to cover, relying on their defense to keep it close in a slow-paced, low-scoring second half.
Prediction: Ohio State 31, Nebraska 13
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