Are the Nebraska Cornhuskers cursed?
The Power Four team with the longest active bowl drought is now just one win away from clinching a spot in the postseason. But their journey isn’t getting any easier, with matchups against the unbeaten Indiana Hoosiers and the 5-1 Ohio State Buckeyes on the horizon.
After a tough blowout loss in their first attempt at win number six, can the Cornhuskers rebound and pull off an upset against the Buckeyes? Check out our Nebraska vs. Ohio State prediction to see which team we’re backing.
Nebraska vs. Ohio State Betting Preview
All Nebraska vs. Ohio State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Oct. 25, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Ohio State -18 - Spread
Ohio State -25.5 - Moneyline
Ohio State -3600, Nebraska +1500 - Over/Under
48 points - Game Time
Noon ET - Location
Ohio Stadium | Columbus, Ohio - Predicted Weather at Kick
55 degrees, cloudy, 8 mph winds - How To Watch
Fox
There hasn’t been a one-score game between these two teams since Nebraska’s loss in Columbus back in 2018. Despite an improved 2024 Cornhuskers squad, both the DraftKings odds and the CFN FPM suggest a lopsided affair this Saturday. Ohio State has dominated the matchup, losing just once to Nebraska in 10 games, and betting circles aren’t showing much faith in Matt Rhule’s team.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With little value in betting on the Buckeyes’ moneyline unless included in a parlay, can the rest of the Ohio State vs. Nebraska odds offer better opportunities? The Cornhuskers (4-2-1) boast a stronger record against the spread than Ohio State (3-3), though they failed to cover the spread the only other time they were underdogs (against Indiana).
Nebraska’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, the Cornhuskers have just an 8.5% chance to win the game. This matchup represents Nebraska’s toughest challenge of the rest of the year, and it’s not particularly close.
- at Ohio State: 8.5%
- vs. UCLA: 83.5%
- at USC: 46.2%
- vs. Wisconsin: 53.8%
- at Iowa: 45.7%
If those win probabilities hold true, Nebraska would end the second season under head coach Rhule with an 8-4 record. That would be the best for the program since 2016, and result in a first bowl appearance for the Cornhuskers in eight years.
Ohio State’s Winning Probability
Conversely, the Buckeyes have a 91.5% chance to win the game. This game represents Ohio State’s third-easiest game of the rest of the year, with a huge game at Penn State looming large.
- vs. Nebraska: 91.5%
- at Penn State: 47.5%
- vs. Purdue: 99.5%
- at Northwestern: 95.6%
- vs. Indiana: 75.3%
- vs. Michigan: 90.4%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, Ohio State would end the 2024 season with a 10-2 record which would be considered a disappointment in Columbus. Depending on results around them, it could also see them miss out on the Big Ten Championship Game and impact a potential playoff berth.
Prediction for Nebraska vs. Ohio State
Our Football Playoff Meter is a reliable and precise tool, but it has one shortcoming: it tends to underestimate the spread in games where there’s a notable talent gap between teams.
In this matchup, it’s clear that these two programs are on different tiers of the college football hierarchy. Despite occasional glimpses of potential, Nebraska’s offense remains among the weakest in the Big Ten. The Cornhuskers have relied heavily on their stout defense, as their offense has struggled, failing to reach 30 points in any game against Power Four opponents and averaging just 20.2 points per contest in those matchups.
Their recent offensive struggles have been particularly evident, with Nebraska managing just five touchdowns over their last three games and averaging under 2.5 yards per carry in each of the last two.
Fortunately for Nebraska, their defense has kept them in contention, limiting opponents to 10 or fewer points in all five wins. However, Indiana exposed some weaknesses last week, racking up 56 points and averaging 8.4 yards per play.
Ohio State, outside of a close road loss to a tough Oregon squad, has been dominant. The Buckeyes have consistently moved the ball even against top-tier defenses.
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All indications point to a convincing Ohio State win, but with a trip to Happy Valley to face Penn State on the horizon, this game may be more about building an early lead and cruising through the second half.
For that reason, I’m backing the Cornhuskers to cover, counting on their defense to keep it close in a methodical, low-scoring second half.
Prediction: Ohio State 31, Nebraska 13
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