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    Navy vs. South Florida Prediction: Can the Midshipmen Tame the Bulls in Wild AAC Rodeo?

    There's an exciting AAC encounter taking place in Florida this weekend, and our Navy vs. South Florida prediction forecasts a wild ride.

    While the state of Florida’s attention might be on the Miami Hurricanes and Florida Gators in the noon Saturday window of Week 11, there’s a game involving an in-state team with significant conference implications that might be sneaking under the radar as the South Florida Bulls face the Navy Midshipmen.

    Who wins? Our Navy vs. South Florida prediction covers all the key aspects, from the latest betting odds to each team’s prospects for the rest of the 2024 college football season.

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    Navy vs. South Florida Betting Preview

    All Navy vs. South Florida odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Nov. 7, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.

    • CFN FPM Spread
      South Florida -2.5
    • Spread
      Navy -2.5
    • Moneyline
      Navy -135, South Florida +114
    • Over/Under
      57.5 points
    • Game time
      Noon ET
    • Location
      Raymond James Stadium | Tampa, FL
    • Predicted Weather at Kick
      87 degrees, mostly cloudy with some showers, 8 mph winds
    • How to Watch
      ESPN2

    Saturday marks the fifth time that Navy and South Florida have gone into battle, and they’ve been back and forth to split the series 2-2. In their last encounter, the Bulls took down the Midshipmen by two touchdowns, but much has changed for the two teams in the 13 months since. As such, Navy heads into the game favored despite their current form and being on the road.

    MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor

    In a potentially ominous sign of the game to come, South Florida hasn’t won as an underdog this fall, going 0-4 when their opponent is favored. Within those games is a clash with a Memphis Tigers team that Navy already beat this year. That, of course, means not a lot, but there might be something in the Midshipmen being 5-1 (4-2 ATS) when favored in 2024.

    Navy’s Winning Probability

    According to the CFN FPM, Navy has a 46.2% chance of beating the Bulls on Saturday afternoon. It’s worth noting that the Midshipmen have overcome our metric once this season, beating the Memphis Tigers despite being an underdog.

    Here are the remaining win probabilities for Navy in the 2024 college football season:

    • at South Florida: 46.2%
    • vs. Tulane: 33.6%
    • at East Carolina: 67.7%
    • vs. Army (neutral venue): 33.6%

    If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Midshipmen would end the year with a 7-5 record. While that’s an improvement in the second season under Brian Newberry, it would likely be considered a disappointment by the program after being 6-0 at the halfway point of the season.

    South Florida’s Winning Probability

    Conversely, South Florida has a 53.8% chance of beating Navy on Saturday afternoon. Our metric has been in lockstep with the Bulls this year, making them a bigger favorite ahead of the 23-point win over the Florida Atlantic Owls than any oddsmaker.

    Here are the remaining win probabilities for South Florida in the 2024 college football season:

    • vs. Navy: 53.8%
    • at Charlotte: 66.4%
    • vs. Tulsa: 80.2%
    • at Rice: 67.7%

    If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Bulls would end the year with an 8-4 record, including a 6-2 AAC campaign. It would be a two-win uptick from last fall, a testament to the impact of head coach Alex Golesh on the program. South Florida hasn’t made successive bowl games since 2018-2019.

    Prediction for Navy vs. South Florida

    This is as big of a game for Navy as for any team in the country this weekend. While that might sound like hyperbole, a defeat will end any hope of making an AAC Championship Game that seemed almost like destiny just one week ago. The shock defeat to the Rice Owls one week ago makes every game from here on out a must-win for Newberry’s Midshipmen.

    Having lost to Tulane and Memphis, South Florida is likely out of the AAC Championship Game race. Still, Golesh’s Bulls will want to prove they can mix it with the top teams in the conference and make a push toward bowl eligibility in the 2024 season. South Florida is the form team, but can they translate that into a win? Who has the edge, and where will the pivotal battles play out?

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    South Florida head coach Golesh is renowned for his offenses. He brought his identity to Tampa from Tennessee, resulting in a Bulls offense that ranked 33rd in the nation last year. The fruits of his work haven’t been as tasty this year, averaging just 27.5 points per game in 2024. However, they’ve faced some stellar defenses and star quarterback Byrum Brown has battled injuries.

    He’ll practice this week, but if he can’t go, backup Bryce Archie has performed admirably the last two weeks. The Bulls also have a triple-headed monster in the backfield with Nay’quan Wright, Kelley Joiner Jr., and Taron Keith. When Brown is fit, his dual-threat bolsters that ground game too. They’ve stacked points in the last two, but those were against mediocre defenses.

    That’s certainly not something that can be leveled at the Navy’s defense. Despite the loss to Rice and being picked apart by the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, there aren’t many better defenses in the AAC. Colin Ramos and Justin Reed live in opposition backfields. Rayuan Lane and Dashaun Peele are standouts in the secondary, capable of laying the boom and snagging errant balls.

    USF has gotten better on that side of the ball this year, too. Led by Mac Harris and Decarius Hawthorne, the Bulls have eight players with four or more tackles for loss, powering a unit that ranks third in TFLs per game. That should give them hope of impacting Navy’s innovative option offense, but Blake Horvath, Alex Tecza, and Eli Heidenreich might prove too strong to tame.

    Prediction: Navy 33, South Florida 27

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