The road to the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy begins in Week 6, as Air Force hosts Navy. The Falcons have won each of the last four matchups, but this isn’t your dad’s Midshipmen.
Here are the latest betting odds, spread analysis, and our prediction for the always-entertaining Navy vs. Air Force October triple-option onslaught.
Navy vs. Air Force Betting and DFS Preview
All Navy vs. Air Force odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Sept. 30, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Navy -7 - Spread
Navy -8.5 - Moneyline
Navy -340, Air Force +270 - Over/Under
35.5 points - Game Time
Noon ET, Saturday, Oct. 5 - Location
Falcon Stadium, USAF Academy, Colo. - Predicted Weather at Kick
65 degrees, 8 mph winds, sunny - How To Watch
CBS
While the spread hasn’t moved much since opening, the total has dropped by three points, likely because of Air Force’s fourth-worst yards (243.0) and points (12.5) per game marks. Yet, that’s not the only reason.
It’s no secret that matchups between service academies usually end with low scores. Since 2003, the unders in armed forces games sit at an impressive 50-11-3. Oddsmakers are well aware of this trend, adjusting totals accordingly; last year’s Army-Navy clash opened with a mere 28-point total.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
There are also some strong trends when it comes to the spread. Navy is 3-1 ATS this year, while Air Force is 0-4. Additionally, the Midshipmen are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games on the road, making their -8.5 look even sweeter.
Navy’s Winning Probability
Navy is 4-0 this season, and the CFN FPM believes the program will win Saturday (70.3% win probability), improving to 5-0 for the fifth time since 1960 (1960, 1978, 1979, 2004, 2017). Nevertheless, the Midshipmen’s first loss could be right around the corner, as they’ll welcome Notre Dame on Oct. 26.
Here are the Midshipmen’s win probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. Charlotte: 76.6%
- vs. Notre Dame: 20.1%
- at Rice: 73.4%
- at USF: 50.6%
- vs. Tulane: 48.8%
- at East Carolina: 79.3%
- vs. Army: 52.8%
Air Force’s Winning Probability
Sorry, Falcons fans; it appears things may get worse before getting better. Not only do they own a 29.7% win probability against Navy, but they aren’t favored in any of their remaining seven contests.
Here are the Falcons’ win probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at New Mexico: 47.2%
- vs. Colorado State: 46.2%
- at Army: 19.8%
- vs. Fresno State: 26.6%
- vs. Oregon State: 25.1%
- at Nevada: 49.2%
- at San Diego State: 42.6%
Prediction Navy vs. Air Force
Air Force may be 34-22 all-time against Navy, but the Midshipmen will add to the win column in Week 6. They haven’t scored less than 38 points in a game this year, including 56 in the College Football Playoff-altering upset over Group of Five favorite Memphis.
Across the field, the Falcons haven’t scored more than 21, which came back in a Week 1 win over FCS-level Merrimack. Suffice it to say, these are two programs on opposite sides of the service academy spectrum.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With Blake Horvath under center, Navy will continue to rack up points on a depleted Air Force defense. And with LB Colin Ramos and DB Rayuan Lane III patrolling the second and third levels, the Falcons will remain grounded on Saturday. Take Navy straight up and ATS, as well as the over, which the Midshipmen could cover on their own.
Prediction: Navy 31, Air Force 10
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