The last military academy to claim back-to-back Commander-in-Chief’s Trophies? The Army Black Knights in 2017-18. This season, they have the opportunity to do it again—with a victory over the Navy Midshipmen this week.
Who will emerge victorious? Our Navy vs. Army prediction dives into all the key details—from the latest betting odds to what’s on the line for both teams as they gear up for the final showdown of the 2024 college football regular season.
Navy vs. Army Betting Preview
All Navy vs. Army odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Dec. 12, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Army -10.5 - Spread
Army -6.5 - Moneyline
Army -250, Navy +205 - Over/Under
39 points - Game Time
3:00 p.m. ET, Saturday, Dec. 14 - Location
Northwest Stadium | Landover, Md. - Predicted Weather at Kick
39 degrees, 1 mph winds, mostly cloudy - How To Watch
CBS
Navy leads the all-time series 62-55-7, but Army has taken the last two matchups. The total might feel low at 40.5, especially considering both teams are averaging over 32 points per game this season.
That said, the last four Army-Navy games have averaged a combined total of just 27.5. The under has hit in four of Navy’s last five games and four of Army’s last six, reinforcing the trend.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Looking at the spread, Navy holds a 7-3 ATS edge over the last 10 matchups, while Army is 1-4 ATS in its past five.
Still, it’s worth noting Navy’s struggles in this rivalry, going just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings against Army. Don’t let the surface stats be your final stop—this matchup has layers worth digging into.
Navy’s Winning Probability
Navy has enjoyed its best season (8-3) since 2019 (11-2), but it could’ve been much better had star QB Blake Horvath’s health not failed him down the stretch. If he misses the standalone matchup with the Black Knights, the Midshipmen’s win probability will be even lower.
- at Army: 21.9%
Army’s Winning Probability
Army has also succeeded expectations, but its ceiling has been even higher. The program’s 11-1 record is its best in the modern era and culminated in an AAC title — in its first year in the conference, no less.
- vs. Navy: 78.1%
Prediction for Navy vs. Army
Don’t count on seeing many passes in this one—it’s the nature of service academy showdowns. Army (86.55%, No. 1) and Navy (75.42%, No. 3) both rank in the top three for rush rate this season.
Run defense is going to take center stage, and if the stats tell us anything, this one might not be all that close when it’s over.
- Rushing yards allowed per game: Army, 104.0 (11th); Navy, 159.8 (85th)
- Defensive EPA per rush: Army, 30th; Navy, 82nd
MORE: Simulate the College Football Playoffs With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Need more convincing? Army, behind QB Bryson Daily, sits at No. 4 in offensive success rate, No. 11 in EPA per rush, and No. 3 in net points per drive.
But all of that could be a moot point if Horvath is sidelined and Braxton Woodson starts under center for Navy. While I expect their star to gut it out for the season finale, any reinjury or limited mobility would be a major blow to the Midshipmen’s upset hopes.
Prediction: Army 28, Navy 17
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