The Murray State Racers have played two money games against the Kentucky Wildcats, losing 37-6 in 2003 and 48-10 in 2018. Can they cover the massive spread in Week 12?
Our Murray State vs. Kentucky prediction dives into the details, providing key betting insights to help you make smarter wagers.
Murray State vs. Kentucky Betting Preview
All Murray State vs. Kentucky odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Kentucky -25.5 - Spread
Kentucky -38.5 - Moneyline
Not Listed - Over/Under
49.5 points - Game Time
1:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, Nov. 16 - Location
Kroger Field | Lexington, Ky. - Predicted Weather at Kick
56 degrees, 6 mph winds, partly cloudy - How To Watch
SECN+/ESPN+
The Racers are 1-9 on the year but are a little better against the spread (3-7). However, the real lean in a Murray State game is the over, as it has hit in each of their last eight contests.
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That’s in stark contrast to recent Wildcats games, with the under cashing in five of their last six at home. Kentucky is also 0-2 straight up and against the spread in its previous two home defenses, pointing the arrow toward Murray State.
Murray State’s Winning Probability
The Racers enter Week 12 on a seven-game losing streak, and it’s likely to continue for at least one more week. They’ll have one more opportunity to match their 2023 campaign win total (2-9) in the season finale against the Southern Illinois Salukis.
- at Kentucky: 3.7%
Kentucky’s Winning Probability
The Wildcats would need to run the table to earn their ninth straight bowl appearance, but with a road trip against the No. 3 Texas Longhorns and a home bout with the No. 19 Louisville Cardinals to the end season, it’s unlikely at best.
- vs. Murray State: 96.3%
- at Texas: 5.6%
- vs. Louisville: 34.9%
Prediction for Murray State vs. Kentucky
The closest level of competition to Murray State that Kentucky has faced this season is the Ohio Bobcats, whom the Wildcats torched 41-6. The Bobcats are a 7-3 FBS team — the Racers really don’t stand a chance.
Starting QB Brock Vandagriff suffered a head injury in the Nov. 2 loss against the Tennessee Volunteers but is expected to suit up in Week 12. Even if he doesn’t, backup Gavin Wimsatt is a dual threat more than capable of thumping an FCS program. Head coach Mark Stoops will also want to give true freshman Cutter Boley some playing time at some point.
“He’s an option,” Stoops said this week. “I’d like to see him, just like I’d like to see a lot of the young guys. … Any game reps you can get somebody, certainly at the quarterback position, it’s important. But we want to go look good, build on what we’ve done, and try to get better.”
Truly, it doesn’t matter who is under center for the Wildcats, as Murray State’s defense is one of the worst at any level.
- Total defense: 491.3 ypg (120th among 123 FCS programs)
- Scoring defense: 43.4 ppg (121st)
- Passing yards allowed: 266.0 per game (114th)
Murray State actually already played an SEC program this year, and it wasn’t pretty. In the season opener against the Missouri Tigers, the Racers scored zero points while allowing 51. Even if the Wildcats aren’t as explosive offensively, this is a get-right spot for them.
They haven’t scored over 20 since the aforementioned matchup with Ohio, but Murray State has conceded 50+ in three straight games — it’s about to be four.
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Take Kentucky to make a statement in front of the home crowd, covering the spread with ease and hitting the over on their own.
Prediction: Kentucky 59, Murray State 0
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