The Missouri Tigers travel to College Station to take on the Texas A&M Aggies in one of the more exciting games in the opening Saturday window of Week 6. As a top-10 team, the Tigers should be a comfortable favorite, but all is not as it should be in the week leading up to the game.
In fact, the Tigers are slight underdogs. Does our Football Playoff Meter agree? Find out how we feel about the odds, spread, and more in our Missouri vs. Texas A&M prediction.
Missouri vs. Texas A&M Betting Preview
All Missouri vs. Texas A&M odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Oct. 2, 2024.
- CFN FPM Spread
Missouri -5 - Spread
Texas A&M -2.5 - Moneyline
Texas A&M -135, Missouri +114 - Over/Under
48.5 points - Game Time
Oct. 5, noon ET - Location
Kyle Field | College Station, TX - Predicted Weather at Kick
83 degrees, sunny, 11 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
Surprisingly, Texas A&M started the week as a two-point favorite over the more highly-ranked Tigers, and the line has drifted even further away from Eli Drinkwitz’s Missouri team as the week has progressed. Clearly, someone, somewhere really fancies Texas A&M with home-field advantage because the CFN FPM spread makes Missouri a five-point favorite.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
If the Missouri vs. Texas A&M odds continue to favor the Aggies, it will be the first time that the Tigers have entered a game as an underdog this year. They’re currently 2-2 covering the spread after narrow wins against Boston College and Vanderbilt when expected to win by at least two scores. Texas A&M has covered just once in five games and that was against a poor Florida team.
Missouri’s Winning Probability
The Football Playoff Meter is a bit kinder to the Tigers than the Vegas line, making the Tigers five-point favorites. That translates to a 64.6% win probability. That represents the Tigers’ second-lowest win probability of any game remaining on the schedule. The Tigers’ win probabilities for the rest of the season are listed below.
- at Texas A&M: 64.7%
- at UMass: 96.8%
- vs. Auburn: 91.7%
- at Alabama: 25.1%
- vs. Oklahoma: 79.9%
- at South Carolina: 74.6%
- at Mississippi State: 91.7%
- vs. Arkansas: 88.1%
Texas A&M’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Texas A&M has a 35.4% chance to win Saturday, meaning a win would have a significant effect on its expected win total for the season. The Aggies’ win probabilities for the rest of the season are listed below.
- vs. Missouri: 35.4%
- at Mississippi State: 77.4%
- at LSU: 35.9%
- at South Carolina: 50.4%
- vs. New Mexico State: 94.7%
- at Auburn: 61.9%
- vs. Texas: 20.4%
Prediction for Missouri vs. Texas A&M
Before this line was released, I thought it was a potential upset spot for the Aggies, and the Vegas line obviously indicates that.
Missouri just hasn’t looked great against an easy schedule this year, and the Tigers also go on the road for the first time in 2024. Texas A&M has a huge home-field advantage, but can the team on the field play to a high enough level to knock off the Tigers?
Texas A&M quarterback Conner Weigman’s status is unknown, but even if healthy, I think the Aggies would choose to run with Marcel Reed anyway. Reed’s legs have been an equalizer this year and the redshirt freshman is taking care of the football as well.
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On the flip side, Missouri is running the football extremely well but hasn’t quite gotten what was expected out of a really talented receiving corps.
Vegas usually picks its spots to make unranked conference opponents favorites over top 10 teams, and I tend to agree. The Aggies’ running game, coupled with another dual-threat quarterback, should give the Tigers enough issues. Give me the Aggies in a really entertaining game. They’ll go back and forth at the end, which could drive the score up and over the total.
Prediction: Texas A&M 28, Missouri 24
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