Spreads don’t always reflect the ranking beside a team’s name, and that’s certainly the case in one SEC showdown Saturday. The Missouri Tigers might be ranked ninth in the country, but that doesn’t mean Vegas expects them to run through the Texas A&M Aggies in College Station, Texas.
In fact, the Tigers are slight underdogs. Does our Football Playoff Meter agree? Find out how we feel about the odds, spread, and more in our Missouri vs. Texas A&M prediction.
Missouri vs. Texas A&M Betting Preview
All Missouri vs. Texas A&M odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Sunday, Sept. 29, 2024.
- CFN FPM Spread
Missouri -5 - Spread
Texas A&M -2 - Moneyline
Unavailable - Over/Under
Unavailable - Game Time
Oct. 5, noon ET - Location
Kyle Field, College Station, Texas - Predicted Weather at Kick
83 degrees, sunny, 11 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
The spread may surprise some people, as the Tigers are ranked inside the top 10, but Vegas not only sees this game as being closer than expected but sees the Aggies winning outright.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Since it’s early, DraftKings doesn’t have a total or moneyline up, but those will come soon. Other books have the total around 48.5 and have the Aggies as -130 favorites, with the Tigers +108 to win outright on the road. This would imply a final score of 25-23 in favor of the Aggies.
Missouri’s Winning Probability
The Football Playoff Meter is a bit kinder to the Tigers than the Vegas line, making the Tigers five-point favorites. That translates to a 64.6% win probability. That represents the Tigers’ second-lowest win probability of any game remaining on the schedule. The Tigers’ win probabilities for the rest of the season are listed below.
- at Texas A&M: 64.7%
- at UMass: 96.8%
- vs. Auburn: 91.7%
- at Alabama: 25.1%
- vs. Oklahoma: 79.9%
- at South Carolina: 74.6%
- at Mississippi State: 91.7%
- vs. Arkansas: 88.1%
Texas A&M’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Texas A&M has a 35.4% chance to win Saturday, meaning a win would have a significant effect on its expected win total for the season. The Aggies’ win probabilities for the rest of the season are listed below.
- vs. Missouri: 35.4%
- at Mississippi State: 77.4%
- at LSU: 35.9%
- at South Carolina: 50.4%
- vs. New Mexico State: 94.7%
- at Auburn: 61.9%
- vs. Texas: 20.4%
Prediction for Missouri vs. Texas A&M
Before this line was released, I thought it was a potential upset spot for the Aggies, and the Vegas line obviously indicates that.
Missouri just hasn’t looked great against an easy schedule this year, and the Tigers also go on the road for the first time in 2024. Texas A&M has a huge home-field advantage, but can the team on the field play to a high enough level to knock off the Tigers?
Texas A&M quarterback Conner Weigman’s status is unknown, but even if healthy, I think the Aggies would choose to run with Marcel Reed anyway. Reed’s legs have been an equalizer this year and the redshirt freshman is taking care of the football as well.
FREE: Sign up for the College Football Network Newsletter to receive unique stories from the world of college football directly to your inbox!
On the flip side, Missouri is running the football extremely well but hasn’t quite gotten what was expected out of a really talented receiving corps.
Vegas usually picks its spots to make unranked conference opponents favorites over top 10 teams, and I tend to agree. The Aggies’ running game, coupled with another dual-threat quarterback should give the Tigers enough issues. Give me the Aggies in a really entertaining game. They’ll go back and forth at the end, which could drive the score up and over the total.
Prediction: Texas A&M 28, Missouri 24
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.