Though the Missouri Tigers boast a higher ranking, the South Carolina Gamecocks come into this matchup with momentum on their side and are favored by nearly two touchdowns. That said, South Carolina hasn’t managed a win against Missouri since 2018.
Will the Gamecocks extend their hot streak and secure another key victory as they eye a potential dark-horse College Football Playoff run? Dive into our Missouri vs. South Carolina prediction to see where we stand.
Missouri vs. South Carolina Betting Preview
All Missouri vs. South Carolina odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 15, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
South Carolina -2 - Spread
South Carolina -14 - Moneyline
South Carolina -600, Missouri +440 - Over/Under
41.5 points - Game Time
Nov. 16, 4:15 p.m. ET - Location
Williams-Brice Stadium | Columbia, SC - Predicted Weather at Kick
66 degrees, sunny, 5 mph winds - How To Watch
SEC Network
This line is indicative of both Missouri’s struggles on the road this season and the quarterback situation, as Eli Drinkwitz announced early Monday that Drew Pyne would once again start behind center.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With a total of 41.5 points and a spread of 14, Vegas has little faith in Missouri’s offense, implying a final score close to 27-14 in favor of South Carolina.
Missouri’s Winning Probability
CFN’s Football Playoff Meter isn’t quite as low on Missouri this weekend as Vegas, as the metric trusts the Tigers’ ability to win close games this year. They’ll have a 47.2% chance to win, per the metric. This represents their hardest remaining game, as they’ll finish an extremely easy SEC slate with two struggling teams.
- at South Carolina: 47.2%
- at Mississippi State: 87.4%
- vs. Arkansas: 67.7%
South Carolina’s Winning Probability
Conversely, South Carolina has a 52.8% chance of beating Missouri at home. FPM has undervalued the Gamecocks all year, but if they win Saturday, they’ll be lurking near the top 15 with a rivalry game at Clemson looming.
- vs. Missouri: 47.2%
- vs. Wofford: 99.9%
- at Clemson: 34.9%
Prediction for Missouri vs. South Carolina
Let me start by saying that our FPM is incredibly accurate, but it’s missed the mark with South Carolina this season. I’ve successfully gone against FPM when it underestimated the Gamecocks as underdogs to Oklahoma, Texas A&M, and Vanderbilt.
The reason? This team has transformed. Earlier in the season, Shane Beamer had a talented roster but wasn’t coaching with the confidence of a team built to line up and take control.
Now, that’s changed. The tricks, fakes, and surprises are gone. South Carolina has developed a clear identity, and they’re taking a straightforward, physical approach on both sides of the ball with a “stop us if you can” mentality.
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South Carolina’s defense is elite—top five in the country—with a defensive line that might be the best in college football. This is a team loaded with talent.
And that spells trouble for a Missouri squad that has benefited from the SEC’s softest schedule, feasting on weaker opponents.
The Tigers have faced just two teams ranked in the SP+ top 25 despite the SEC having more than half its teams in that category. Against teams outside the top 25, Missouri is 7-0, including dominant wins over three non-Power Four opponents by a combined 134-3.
But outside of those blowouts, Missouri hasn’t been convincing. Against average or below-average Power Four teams, they’re 4-0, but those wins came by an average of just five points. Notably, all four opponents had offenses ranked outside the top 75 and were played at home. In fact, the Tigers have only left Faurot Field three times this season.
When Missouri has faced quality teams, it’s been ugly—a combined 75-10 loss in those two games. Right now, they’re a paper tiger, boosted by an easy schedule and a dose of luck.
South Carolina will be the third legitimate team Missouri faces on the road, and I don’t see this one ending any differently.
There is a caveat: history. Missouri has dominated this matchup under Eli Drinkwitz, winning five straight, including a blowout last year. The Gamecocks have managed more than 14 points only once in that span.
But this year feels different. South Carolina should control the trenches, and their newfound power-rushing attack paired with LaNorris Sellers’ emergence can’t be ignored.
There’s also uncertainty for Missouri with Brady Cook’s health. If he plays, he won’t be at full strength, and if he’s out, the Tigers are in even more trouble.
South Carolina has hit its stride offensively, and I’m putting my trust in the team that’s proven itself over one that has faltered in big moments. Beamer wants this one badly, and if the Gamecocks get ahead, don’t expect them to take their foot off the gas.
Take the hot team with the points and lean toward the over—South Carolina could pile it on late.
Gamecocks in a blowout.
Prediction: South Carolina 37, Missouri 13
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