The Missouri Tigers roll into Starkville boasting a 7-3 record and a No. 23 national ranking, yet they’re still reeling from a tough 34-30 loss to the South Carolina Gamecocks last week. This season has seen flashes of brilliance from the Tigers, but their SEC campaign has been rocky, with a 3-3 mark in conference play.
On the other side, the Mississippi State Bulldogs find themselves deep in a rebuilding phase. At 2-8 overall and winless in SEC competition, the program is searching for a spark. Their most recent game—a 33-14 loss to Tennessee—highlighted their ongoing challenges. Can our Missouri vs. Mississippi State prediction uncover the answers the Bulldogs so desperately need?
Missouri vs. Mississippi State Betting Preview
All Missouri vs. Mississippi State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 22, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Missouri -13.5 - Spread
Missouri -8 - Moneyline
Missouri -310, Mississippi State +250 - Over/Under
57.5 points - Game time
4:15 p.m. ET - Location
Davis Wade Stadium | Starkville, MS - Predicted Weather at Kick
60 degrees, mostly cloudy, 5 mph winds - How To Watch
SEC Network
This line opened with the Tigers as -5.5 point favorites, but that number has climbed to 8. The spread has stayed between those two numbers and likely won’t climb much higher before kick on Saturday.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The total opened at 56.5 and has climbed to 57.5 by a full point, but it has settled at 57 for now. This is likely to see more action and will continue to move before Saturday’s kickoff.
Missouri’s Winning Probability
According to CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, the Tigers have an 83.5% chance of defeating the Bulldogs on Saturday.
If the win probabilities hold, Missouri will finish with a 9-3 record and a 5-3 SEC record. With those two wins and a bowl game win, Missouri would finish with double-digit wins for the second time in the Eli Drinkwitz era.
- at Mississippi State: 83.5%
- vs. Arkansas: 61.1%
Mississippi State’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Mississippi State has a 16.5% chance of defeating Missouri on Saturday.
If the win probabilities hold, the Bulldogs would finish 2024 with a record of 2-10. This would be the worst finish for a Mississippi State football team since 2003, when the Bulldogs finished 2-10 in Jackie Sherril’s final season at the helm.
- vs. Missouri: 16.5%
- at Ole Miss: 2.8%
Prediction for Missouri vs. Mississippi State
Brady Cook continues to guide Missouri’s offense with precision, racking up 1,812 passing yards and eight touchdowns. On the ground, Nate Noel leads the charge with 684 yards and three scores on 122 carries, while Marcus Carroll brings a bruising presence with 427 yards and seven touchdowns.
Theo Wease Jr. headlines the receiving corps with 637 yards and three touchdowns, while Luther Burden III provides a dynamic counterpart, hauling in 574 yards and five scores.
MORE: 2024 College Football Power Rankings
Mississippi State returns to Starkville after a grueling stretch, having managed just two wins in 10 games. The Bulldogs are coming off a tough loss to Tennessee, where their defense allowed 452 yards while their offense struggled to get going, managing only 271 total yards and coughing up two turnovers.
Missouri’s offense has hit a few roadblocks in recent weeks, but their defense has stepped up, holding opponents to under 60% completions—a key benchmark for success. Their only loss in such scenarios came against Oklahoma, which required a near-miraculous comeback to pull it off.
Mississippi State, sitting at 59% in completion rate, will need to break out of its recent struggles through the air to keep things competitive. Expect the Bulldogs to throw everything they’ve got at Missouri. However, the Tigers are likely to lean on their reliable ground game, running the ball 35-40 times to control the clock and dictate the tempo.
With a disciplined, methodical approach, Missouri grinds out a hard-fought win, pulling away in the later stages of the game.
Prediction: Missouri 36, Mississippi State 23
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