The Missouri Tigers travel to Tuscaloosa on Saturday to take on the Alabama Crimson Tide in a matchup where both teams must win despite recent out-of-character poor performances. Who finds their feet — and form — in this all-SEC showdown?
Find out who we think survives in this Missouri vs. Alabama prediction that includes the latest betting odds for Saturday’s clash.
Missouri vs. Alabama Betting Preview
All Missouri vs. Alabama odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Oct. 23, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Alabama -8.5 - Spread
Alabama -13.5 - Moneyline
Alabama -500, Missouri +380 - Over/Under
55 points - Game Time
3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Bryant-Denny Stadium | Tuscaloosa, AL - Predicted Weather at Kick
82 degrees, sunny, 5 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
Saturday sees the first meeting of the two teams since 2020, when Alabama emerged with a comfortable 38-19 in the disrupted campaign. In fact, the Crimson Tide boasts a 5-2 head-to-head advantage over the Tigers with five consecutive wins, albeit with those results coming at very different times in the development of the two programs.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
The DraftKings Sportsbook line opened with Alabama as the best part of a two-touchdown favorite, and hasn’t moved at the midway point of the week. Given Alabama’s struggles this season, it might seem like too much of a gap, especially since Kalen DeBoer’s team hasn’t won by two scores since mid-September. The Tide are 3-4 against the spread in 2024.
Missouri’s Winning Probability
FPM is a bit higher on Missouri’s chances than the Vegas spread by about five points. The Tigers have a 25.1% chance to win the game per the metric, translating to an implied spread of about 8.5 points. Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at Alabama: 25.1%
- vs. Oklahoma: 77.4%
- at South Carolina: 63.6%
- at Mississippi State: 90.8%
- vs. Arkansas: 74.6%
Alabama’s Winning Probability
Conversely, the Crimson Tide has a 74.9% chance to win the game. This game represents Alabama’s second-toughest challenge of the year, as the Crimson Tide head to Baton Rouge, next week. Here are Alabama’s winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. Missouri: 74.9%
- at LSU: 46.6%
- vs. Mercer: 99.9%
- at Oklahoma: 80.2%
- vs. Auburn: 94.1%
Prediction for Missouri vs. Alabama
Neither of these teams is likely feeling particularly confident after ugly games on Saturday. The difference here is that the Tigers escaped with a win while Alabama fell on the road to the Tennessee Volunteers.
Interestingly, even as a stats nerd and “football guy,” I’m having trouble pinpointing exactly what the issue is for each team. There’s not one area of either team on which you can pin most of the blame.
That makes this game extremely difficult to predict.
On the one hand, Alabama has underperformed against the Vanderbilt Commodores, South Carolina Gamecocks, and Tennessee since a huge win over the Georgia Bulldogs, failing to cover in all three and underperforming the spread by an average of 18 points a game.
On the other hand, Missouri is 5-1 but has escaped its three Power Four games by one score, including Saturday’s 21-17 win over Auburn, in which it led for less than two minutes.
The advanced metrics tend to think Alabama has gotten a bit unlucky, as the Crimson Tide played much closer games against Vanderbilt and South Carolina than the postgame win expectancy suggests, while Missouri has outperformed its postgame win expectancy in six of seven games, suggesting an eventual regression.
Basically, in looking at the advanced metrics, Alabama and Missouri are both due for regression but in opposite directions.
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That said, I don’t think the matchups support that this week. Both secondaries have shown a susceptibility to the deep ball. Alabama is at home, where head coach DeBoer is 77-1 in his career, so I don’t think the Crimson Tide are in danger of losing outright.
However, Missouri can frustrate quarterback Jalen Milroe and keep this close until the end. Expect a low-scoring, decent game.
Prediction: Alabama 28, Missouri 20
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