The Missouri Tigers travel to College Station to take on the Texas A&M Aggies in one of the more exciting games in the opening Saturday window of Week 6. As a top-10 team, the Tigers should be a comfortable favorite, but all is not as it should be in the week leading up to the game.
In fact, the Tigers are slight underdogs. Does our Football Playoff Meter agree? Find out how we feel about the odds, spread, and more in our Missouri vs. Texas A&M prediction.
Missouri vs. Texas A&M Betting Preview
All Missouri vs. Texas A&M odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Oct. 4, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Missouri -5 - Spread
Texas A&M -2.5 - Moneyline
Texas A&M -135, Missouri +114 - Over/Under
48 points - Game Time
Oct. 5, noon ET - Location
Kyle Field | College Station, TX - Predicted Weather at Kick
83 degrees, sunny, 11 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
Surprisingly, Texas A&M started the week as a two-point favorite over the more highly-ranked Tigers, and the line has drifted even further away from Eli Drinkwitz’s Missouri team as the week has progressed. Clearly, someone, somewhere really fancies Texas A&M with home-field advantage because the CFN FPM spread makes Missouri a five-point favorite.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
If the Missouri vs. Texas A&M odds continue to favor the Aggies, it will be the first time that the Tigers have entered a game as an underdog this year. They’re currently 2-2 covering the spread after narrow wins against Boston College and Vanderbilt when expected to win by at least two scores. Texas A&M has covered just once in five games and that was against a poor Florida team.
Missouri’s Winning Probability
The Football Playoff Meter is a bit kinder to the Tigers than the Vegas line, making the Tigers five-point favorites. That translates to a 64.6% win probability. That represents the Tigers’ second-lowest win probability of any game remaining on the schedule. The Tigers’ win probabilities for the rest of the season are listed below.
- at Texas A&M: 64.6%
- at UMass: 99.0%
- vs. Auburn: 91.7%
- at Alabama: 25.1%
- vs. Oklahoma: 79.9%
- at South Carolina: 74.6%
- at Mississippi State: 92.8%
- vs. Arkansas: 88.1%
Texas A&M’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Texas A&M has a 35.4% chance to win Saturday, meaning a win would have a significant effect on its expected win total for the season. The Aggies’ win probabilities for the rest of the season are listed below.
- vs. Missouri: 35.4%
- at Mississippi State: 79.9%
- at LSU: 35.9%
- at South Carolina: 50.4%
- vs. New Mexico State: 92.9%
- at Auburn: 61.9%
- vs. Texas: 20.4%
Prediction for Missouri vs. Texas A&M
Before the line came out, I saw this as a potential upset for the Aggies, and the Vegas odds seem to back that up.
Missouri hasn’t been particularly impressive, even against a light schedule, and now the Tigers are hitting the road for the first time in 2024. Texas A&M has a significant home-field advantage, but can their team play well enough to overcome the Tigers?
The status of Texas A&M quarterback Conner Weigman is uncertain, but even if he’s cleared, I think the Aggies will opt to stick with Marcel Reed. Reed’s mobility has been a difference-maker this season, and the redshirt freshman has done a great job protecting the football.
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Meanwhile, Missouri’s ground game is thriving, but their highly touted receiving unit hasn’t quite lived up to expectations.
Vegas tends to make unranked conference teams favorites over top-10 squads for a reason, and I’m inclined to agree. The Aggies’ rushing attack, combined with a dynamic quarterback, should present plenty of challenges for the Tigers. I’m taking the Aggies in what should be a thrilling game. Expect a back-and-forth finish that could push the score over the total.
Prediction: Texas A&M 28, Missouri 24
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