The Missouri Tigers head to Tuscaloosa this Saturday to face off against the Alabama Crimson Tide in a crucial matchup, with both teams looking to rebound from recent uncharacteristic struggles. Which team will regain their footing and form in this all-SEC showdown?
Check out our Missouri vs. Alabama prediction, complete with the latest betting odds for Saturday’s game.
Missouri vs. Alabama Betting Preview
All Missouri vs. Alabama odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Oct. 24, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Alabama -8.5 - Spread
Alabama -17 - Moneyline
Alabama -750, Missouri +525 - Over/Under
51points - Game Time
3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Bryant-Denny Stadium | Tuscaloosa, AL - Predicted Weather at Kick
82 degrees, sunny, 5 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
Saturday sees the first meeting of the two teams since 2020, when Alabama emerged with a comfortable 38-19 in the disrupted campaign. In fact, the Crimson Tide boasts a 5-2 head-to-head advantage over the Tigers with five consecutive wins, albeit with those results coming at very different times in the development of the two programs.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
The DraftKings Sportsbook line opened with Alabama as the best part of a two-touchdown favorite, and moved all the way to -17 given the news around Missouri QB Brady Cook. Given Alabama’s struggles this season, it might seem like too much of a gap, especially since Kalen DeBoer’s team hasn’t won by two scores since mid-September. The Tide are 3-4 against the spread in 2024.
Missouri’s Winning Probability
FPM is a bit higher on Missouri’s chances than the Vegas spread by about five points. The Tigers have a 25.1% chance to win the game per the metric, translating to an implied spread of about 8.5 points. Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at Alabama: 25.1%
- vs. Oklahoma: 77.4%
- at South Carolina: 63.6%
- at Mississippi State: 90.8%
- vs. Arkansas: 74.6%
Alabama’s Winning Probability
Conversely, the Crimson Tide has a 74.9% chance to win the game. This game represents Alabama’s second-toughest challenge of the year, as the Crimson Tide head to Baton Rouge, next week. Here are Alabama’s winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. Missouri: 74.9%
- at LSU: 46.6%
- vs. Mercer: 99.9%
- at Oklahoma: 80.2%
- vs. Auburn: 94.1%
Prediction for Missouri vs. Alabama
Neither of these teams is likely brimming with confidence after rough outings on Saturday. The key difference is that the Tigers managed to escape with a win, while Alabama fell on the road to the Tennessee Volunteers.
Interestingly, even as a self-proclaimed stats nerd and “football guy,” I’m struggling to pinpoint exactly what’s plaguing each team. There’s no single aspect of either squad that seems to be the root of their issues.
This makes predicting the outcome of this game particularly challenging.
On one hand, Alabama has underwhelmed against the Vanderbilt Commodores, South Carolina Gamecocks, and Tennessee since their big win over the Georgia Bulldogs, failing to cover the spread in all three and missing expectations by an average of 18 points per game.
On the other hand, Missouri is sitting at 5-1 but has barely squeaked by in its three Power Four matchups, including Saturday’s 21-17 win over Auburn, in which they led for less than two minutes.
Advanced metrics suggest that Alabama has been a bit unlucky, playing closer games against Vanderbilt and South Carolina than the postgame win expectancy would indicate, while Missouri has outperformed its postgame win expectancy in six of seven games, hinting at a potential regression.
Essentially, the advanced metrics suggest both Alabama and Missouri are due for regression, but in opposite directions.
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However, I don’t think the matchups align with those projections this week. Both teams’ secondaries have shown vulnerability to the deep ball. With Alabama at home—where head coach DeBoer boasts a 77-1 career record—I don’t see the Crimson Tide facing an outright loss.
That said, Missouri has the ability to disrupt quarterback Jalen Milroe and keep this game close. Expect a low-scoring, competitive affair.
Prediction: Alabama 28, Missouri 20
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