The Missouri Tigers travel to Tuscaloosa this Saturday to take on the Alabama Crimson Tide in a pivotal SEC clash, as both teams aim to bounce back from recent unexpected setbacks. Who will find their stride in this high-stakes matchup?
Dive into our Missouri vs. Alabama prediction, featuring the latest betting odds for Saturday’s showdown.
Missouri vs. Alabama Betting Preview
All Missouri vs. Alabama odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Oct. 25, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Alabama -8.5 - Spread
Alabama -17 - Moneyline
Alabama -750, Missouri +525 - Over/Under
50 points - Game Time
3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Bryant-Denny Stadium | Tuscaloosa, AL - Predicted Weather at Kick
82 degrees, sunny, 5 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
Saturday marks the first meeting between these two teams since 2020, when Alabama claimed a comfortable 38-19 victory during a disrupted season. The Crimson Tide holds a 5-2 advantage in the head-to-head series, with five straight wins, though those outcomes came during different phases in the programs’ development.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
The DraftKings Sportsbook initially set Alabama as a near two-touchdown favorite, but the line has shifted to -17 amid news surrounding Missouri QB Brady Cook. Considering Alabama’s struggles this season, that spread might feel a bit too wide—especially as Kalen DeBoer’s squad hasn’t won by two scores since mid-September. The Tide currently sit at 3-4 against the spread in 2024.
Missouri’s Winning Probability
FPM is a bit higher on Missouri’s chances than the Vegas spread by about five points. The Tigers have a 25.1% chance to win the game per the metric, translating to an implied spread of about 8.5 points. Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at Alabama: 25.1%
- vs. Oklahoma: 77.4%
- at South Carolina: 63.6%
- at Mississippi State: 90.8%
- vs. Arkansas: 74.6%
Alabama’s Winning Probability
Conversely, the Crimson Tide has a 74.9% chance to win the game. This game represents Alabama’s second-toughest challenge of the year, as the Crimson Tide head to Baton Rouge, next week. Here are Alabama’s winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. Missouri: 74.9%
- at LSU: 46.6%
- vs. Mercer: 99.9%
- at Oklahoma: 80.2%
- vs. Auburn: 94.1%
Prediction for Missouri vs. Alabama
Both teams come into this matchup with plenty to work on after rough outings last Saturday. The key difference? Missouri managed to pull off a win, while Alabama stumbled on the road against the Tennessee Volunteers.
As a self-proclaimed stats nerd and “football guy,” I’m finding it tough to pinpoint exactly what’s holding each team back. There doesn’t seem to be a single glaring issue plaguing either squad, which makes predicting this game particularly challenging.
On one side, Alabama has struggled to meet expectations since their big win over the Georgia Bulldogs, falling short against the Vanderbilt Commodores, South Carolina Gamecocks, and Tennessee Volunteers. They’ve failed to cover the spread in all three matchups, missing the mark by an average of 18 points per game.
Meanwhile, Missouri sits at 5-1 but has barely edged out wins in its three Power Four matchups, including a tight 21-17 victory over Auburn, where they led for less than two minutes.
Advanced metrics paint an interesting picture: Alabama has been somewhat unlucky, playing tighter games against Vanderbilt and South Carolina than the postgame win expectancy would suggest, while Missouri has exceeded its postgame win expectancy in six of seven games, hinting that a regression could be on the horizon.
In essence, the numbers suggest both Alabama and Missouri are due for regression—but in opposite directions.
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That said, I don’t think the matchups align perfectly with those projections this week. Both teams’ secondaries have shown susceptibility to deep passes. With Alabama playing at home—where head coach DeBoer boasts a 77-1 career record—I don’t see the Crimson Tide suffering an outright loss.
However, Missouri has the tools to disrupt quarterback Jalen Milroe and keep this game close. Expect a tight, low-scoring battle.
Prediction: Alabama 28, Missouri 20
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