Missouri vs. Alabama Prediction: Brady Cook’s Status, Level of Play Looms Large vs. Crimson Tide

    Neither team has been at their best recently, but see which one we’re backing to rebound in our Missouri vs. Alabama prediction.

    The Missouri Tigers head to Tuscaloosa this Saturday for a crucial SEC showdown against the Alabama Crimson Tide, with both teams eager to recover from recent unexpected setbacks. Who will find their rhythm in this high-stakes clash?

    Join us for our Missouri vs. Alabama prediction, complete with the latest betting odds for Saturday’s game.

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    Missouri vs. Alabama Betting Preview

    All Missouri vs. Alabama odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.

    • CFN FPM Spread
      Alabama -8.5
    • Spread
      Alabama -15.5
    • Moneyline
      Alabama -700, Missouri +500
    • Over/Under
      51 points
    • Game Time
      3:30 p.m. ET
    • Location
      Bryant-Denny Stadium | Tuscaloosa, AL
    • Predicted Weather at Kick
      82 degrees, sunny, 5 mph winds
    • How To Watch
      ABC

    Saturday marks the first meeting between these two teams since 2020, when Alabama claimed a comfortable 38-19 victory during a disrupted season. The Crimson Tide holds a 5-2 advantage in the head-to-head series, with five straight wins, though those outcomes came during different phases in the programs’ development.

    MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator

    The DraftKings Sportsbook initially set Alabama as a near two-touchdown favorite, but the line has shifted to -15.5 amid news surrounding Missouri QB Brady Cook. Considering Alabama’s struggles this season, that spread might feel a bit too wide—especially as Kalen DeBoer’s squad hasn’t won by two scores since mid-September. The Tide currently sit at 3-4 against the spread in 2024.

    Missouri’s Winning Probability

    FPM is a bit higher on Missouri’s chances than the Vegas spread by about five points. The Tigers have a 25.1% chance to win the game per the metric, translating to an implied spread of about 8.5 points. Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:

    • at Alabama: 25.1%
    • vs. Oklahoma: 77.4%
    • at South Carolina: 63.6%
    • at Mississippi State: 90.8%
    • vs. Arkansas: 74.6%

    Alabama’s Winning Probability

    Conversely, the Crimson Tide has a 74.9% chance to win the game. This game represents Alabama’s second-toughest challenge of the year, as the Crimson Tide head to Baton Rouge, next week. Here are Alabama’s winning probabilities for the rest of the season:

    • vs. Missouri: 74.9%
    • at LSU: 46.6%
    • vs. Mercer: 99.9%
    • at Oklahoma: 80.2%
    • vs. Auburn: 94.1%

    Prediction for Missouri vs. Alabama

    Both teams enter this matchup with plenty to address after last Saturday’s rocky performances. The key difference? Missouri managed to grind out a win, while Alabama stumbled on the road against Tennessee.

    As a self-confessed stats nerd and “football guy,” I’m finding it tricky to pinpoint exactly what’s holding each team back. No glaring issue stands out, which makes this game even harder to predict.

    On one hand, Alabama has struggled to meet expectations since their big win over Georgia, faltering against Vanderbilt, South Carolina, and Tennessee. They’ve failed to cover the spread in each of these games, missing by an average of 18 points.

    Missouri, meanwhile, sits at 5-1 but has squeaked by in three Power Four matchups, including a narrow 21-17 win over Auburn, where they led for less than two minutes.

    Advanced metrics offer an intriguing view: Alabama has been somewhat unlucky, playing closer games against Vanderbilt and South Carolina than expected, while Missouri has outperformed postgame win expectancy in six of seven games—hinting that they may be due for a downturn.

    In short, the numbers indicate that both Alabama and Missouri could be primed for regression—but in opposite directions.

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    Even so, I’m not convinced this week’s matchups align perfectly with those projections. Both teams’ secondaries have been vulnerable to deep passes, but with Alabama at home—where Coach DeBoer boasts a staggering 77-1 record—it’s hard to imagine the Crimson Tide falling outright.

    That said, Missouri has the tools to disrupt QB Jalen Milroe and keep things close. A lot may come down to how well Cook can play at QB, but expect a tight, low-scoring clash.

    Prediction: Alabama 28, Missouri 20

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