We knew it would be a “Year Zero” for Jeff Lebby and his Mississippi State Bulldogs, but they’re trailing even the progress Zach Arnett achieved in his brief tenure with the program. With time running out, the Bulldogs are in desperate need of an SEC win this season.
This week, Mississippi State heads to Knoxville, aiming to upset a Tennessee Volunteers squad that may not be as strong as previous teams but is still in a solid position to contend for the College Football Playoff. Dive into our Mississippi State vs. Tennessee prediction to see who we believe will come out on top.
Mississippi State vs. Tennessee Betting Preview
All Mississippi State vs. Tennessee odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Nov. 6, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Tennessee -27 - Spread
Tennessee -24 - Moneyline
Tennessee -2800, Mississippi State +1300 - Over/Under
61 points - Game Time
Nov. 9, 7 p.m. ET - Location
Neyland Stadium | Knoxville, Tenn. - Predicted Weather at Kick
65 degrees, cloudy, 3 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
Though Tennessee has only averaged 22.8 points per SEC game, the Volunteers are 24-point favorites against the lowly Bulldogs. This line could move a bit, but as it is, it’s indicative of Vegas’ low view of Mississippi State’s defense.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With a total of 61 points and the spread so wide, Vegas expects a blowout. The implied final score is close to 42-18 in favor of the Volunteers.
Mississippi State’s Winning Probability
Per CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, the Bulldogs don’t have many opportunities to win a Power Four game remaining on the schedule. While Mississippi State’s winning probability of 2.8% is its lowest left on the schedule, FPM doesn’t give the Bulldogs much of a chance in the other games either.
- at Tennessee: 2.8%
- vs. Missouri: 12.8%
- at Ole Miss: 4.1%
Tennessee’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Tennessee has a 97.2% chance of beating Mississippi State at home, which translates to a spread of just 27 points. FPM still thinks the Volunteers have a good shot of winning the SEC and making the College Football Playoff, but a loss to Georgia later this year would really make that difficult.
- vs. Mississippi State: 97.2%
- at Georgia: 27%
- vs. UTEP: 99.9%
- vs. Vanderbilt: 79.3%
Prediction for Mississippi State vs. Tennessee
The outlook isn’t great for Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are shaping up to be one of the SEC’s weakest teams in recent memory. After being blown out at home, we mistakenly sized up a Toledo Rockets team that barely avoided going sub-.500 in the MAC last week with a last-second two-point conversion.
Mississippi State’s defense is a big part of the problem, ranking in the bottom 10 nationally across most statistical categories. While their offense has shown flashes that helped them hang with Georgia and Texas A&M, there’s little hope for winning big games with a defense struggling this much.
Even UMass, which has the worst offense in the FBS, put up 20 points on Mississippi State last week.
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This brings us to Tennessee’s offense, which has had its own issues this season, looking like the weakest of Josh Heupel’s era. Redshirt freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava has faced growing pains, and the unit has often looked out of sync in SEC play, failing to hit 30 points in conference games and scoring fewer than 20 in regulation twice.
Despite these challenges, the Volunteers keep finding ways to win, thanks to effective halftime adjustments and solid defensive efforts. While I don’t expect the outcome of this game to ever be in doubt, I’ll be watching to see if Tennessee’s offense can find its non-conference rhythm against a struggling Mississippi State defense.
Oddly enough, I like the Bulldogs to cover here, simply because I think they can scrape together enough offense to put up a couple of touchdowns. With the current line, Tennessee would need to score five or six times to cover, and I’m not confident they’ll have the firepower to do that early.
Once Tennessee has control of the game, they’ll likely ease up, so a late cover seems unlikely. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have a habit of sneaking in back-door covers, which plays heavily into my thinking.
In the end, I don’t trust Mississippi State’s offense against Tennessee’s defense, but the same goes for the Volunteers’ struggling offense. It won’t be a low-scoring affair, but I don’t see it going over the total either.
Prediction: Tennessee 38, Mississippi State 16
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