We knew it’d be a Year Zero situation for Jeff Lebby and his Mississippi State Bulldogs, but they’re significantly behind even where Zach Arnett had them in his one and only year in charge of the program. The Bulldogs are running low on chances of earning an SEC win this season.
This week, Mississippi State travels to Knoxville, looking to knock off a Tennessee Volunteers team that doesn’t look as good as past teams yet sits in prime position to make the College Football Playoff. Find out who we think prevails in this Mississippi State vs. Tennessee prediction.
Mississippi State vs. Tennessee Betting Preview
All Mississippi State vs. Tennessee odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Nov. 4, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Tennessee -27 - Spread
Tennessee -24 - Moneyline
Tennessee -2400, Mississippi State +1200 - Over/Under
61 points - Game Time
Nov. 9, 7 p.m. ET - Location
Neyland Stadium | Knoxville, Tenn. - Predicted Weather at Kick
65 degrees, cloudy, 3 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
Though Tennessee has only averaged 22.8 points per SEC game, the Volunteers are 24-point favorites against the lowly Bulldogs. This line could move a bit, but as it is, it’s indicative of Vegas’ low view of Mississippi State’s defense.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With a total of 61 points and the spread so wide, Vegas expects a blowout. The implied final score is close to 42-18 in favor of the Volunteers.
Mississippi State’s Winning Probability
Per CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, the Bulldogs don’t have many opportunities to win a Power Four game remaining on the schedule. While Mississippi State’s winning probability of 2.8% is its lowest left on the schedule, FPM doesn’t give the Bulldogs much of a chance in the other games either.
- at Tennessee: 2.8%
- vs. Missouri: 12.8%
- at Ole Miss: 4.1%
Tennessee’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Tennessee has a 97.2% chance of beating Mississippi State at home, which translates to a spread of just 27 points. FPM still thinks the Volunteers have a good shot of winning the SEC and making the College Football Playoff, but a loss to Georgia later this year would really make that difficult.
- vs. Mississippi State: 97.2%
- at Georgia: 27%
- vs. UTEP: 99.9%
- vs. Vanderbilt: 79.3%
Prediction for Mississippi State vs. Tennessee
Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, Mississippi State looks like one of the worst SEC teams in modern history. When the Bulldogs were blown out at home, we made incorrect assumptions about a Toledo Rockets team that was a two-point conversion away from going sub-.500 in the MAC last week.
The Bulldogs’ defense just isn’t good, sitting in the bottom 10 nationally in most statistical categories. The offense has flashed and made results against Georgia and Texas A&M look more respectable, but there’s just no chance of winning big games with this defense struggling so badly.
Even UMass, with the worst offense in the FBS scored 20 points on the Bulldogs last week.
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The point of bringing that up is that Tennessee’s offense hasn’t looked great at times this season, and it’s certainly the worst of the Josh Heupel era. There have been growing pains with redshirt freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava, and the unit has often looked out of sync in SEC play, failing to reach 30 points in the conference and being held under 20 in regulation twice.
Still, the Volunteers keep winning, boosted by halftime adjustments and solid defensive play. While I don’t think the result of this one will ever be in doubt, I’m watching closely to see if Tennessee’s offense can return to non-conference form against a terrible Mississippi State defense.
I actually like the Bulldogs to cover here, simply because I think the offense can do enough to score a couple of touchdowns. At the current line, that means Tennessee will need to score five or six times to cover the spread. With points at a premium for the Volunteers’ offense, I have my doubts they’lll do enough early to push the bigger spread.
Once the game is well in hand, the Volunteers will slow down a bit, so don’t expect them to get a late cover. The Bulldogs, however, are no strangers to back-door covers, which factors in heavily to my thought process.
I don’t trust Mississippi State’s offense enough against this Tennessee front. The same could be said for the Volunteers’ struggling offense. It won’t be low-scoring, but it won’t go over the total.
Prediction: Tennessee 38, Mississippi State 16
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