It was clear this would be a “Year Zero” for Jeff Lebby and his Mississippi State Bulldogs, but they’re falling short of even the modest progress made during Zach Arnett’s brief stint leading the program. With the clock ticking, the Bulldogs are in dire need of an SEC victory to salvage their season.
This week, Mississippi State travels to Knoxville, hoping to pull off an upset against a Tennessee Volunteers team that may not be as dominant as in years past but remains firmly in the hunt for a College Football Playoff spot. Check out our Mississippi State vs. Tennessee prediction to find out who we believe will emerge victorious.
Mississippi State vs. Tennessee Betting Preview
All Mississippi State vs. Tennessee odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 9, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Tennessee -27 - Spread
Tennessee -25.5 - Moneyline
Tennessee -2800, Mississippi State +1300 - Over/Under
61 points - Game Time
Nov. 9, 7 p.m. ET - Location
Neyland Stadium | Knoxville, Tenn. - Predicted Weather at Kick
65 degrees, cloudy, 3 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
Though Tennessee has only averaged 22.8 points per SEC game, the Volunteers are 24-point favorites against the lowly Bulldogs. This line could move a bit, but as it is, it’s indicative of Vegas’ low view of Mississippi State’s defense.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With a total of 61 points and the spread so wide, Vegas expects a blowout. The implied final score is close to 42-18 in favor of the Volunteers.
Mississippi State’s Winning Probability
Per CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, the Bulldogs don’t have many opportunities to win a Power Four game remaining on the schedule. While Mississippi State’s winning probability of 2.8% is its lowest left on the schedule, FPM doesn’t give the Bulldogs much of a chance in the other games either.
- at Tennessee: 2.8%
- vs. Missouri: 12.8%
- at Ole Miss: 4.1%
Tennessee’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Tennessee has a 97.2% chance of beating Mississippi State at home, which translates to a spread of just 27 points. FPM still thinks the Volunteers have a good shot of winning the SEC and making the College Football Playoff, but a loss to Georgia later this year would really make that difficult.
- vs. Mississippi State: 97.2%
- at Georgia: 27%
- vs. UTEP: 99.9%
- vs. Vanderbilt: 79.3%
Prediction for Mississippi State vs. Tennessee
The outlook is grim for Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are quickly shaping up as one of the SEC’s weakest teams in recent memory. After getting blown out at home, they followed it up with a performance that somehow made a struggling Toledo Rockets team—one that barely avoided falling below .500 in the MAC last week with a last-second two-point conversion—look competitive.
Mississippi State’s defense has been a glaring issue, ranking in the bottom 10 nationally across nearly every key statistical category. While their offense has shown occasional flashes—enough to keep them within striking distance of Georgia and Texas A&M—it’s hard to envision them pulling off any big wins with a defense that’s leaking points at an alarming rate.
Even UMass, widely regarded as the FBS’s least threatening offense, managed to hang 20 points on the Bulldogs last week.
FREE: Sign up for the College Football Network Newsletter to receive unique stories from the world of college football directly to your inbox!
Now, Mississippi State faces Tennessee—a team with its own offensive struggles this season. The Volunteers’ offense, led by redshirt freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava, has been the weakest of Josh Heupel’s tenure. Growing pains at quarterback, coupled with a lack of rhythm in SEC play, have kept Tennessee from hitting 30 points in conference games and held them under 20 points in regulation twice.
Despite those offensive hiccups, Tennessee has consistently found ways to win, thanks to smart halftime adjustments and a defense that’s proven to be the backbone of this team. While I don’t see the outcome of this game ever truly in doubt, I’ll be watching to see if Tennessee’s offense can rediscover its early-season form against a vulnerable Mississippi State defense.
Oddly enough, I like Mississippi State to cover here. Their offense has enough juice to scrape together a couple of touchdowns, and with the current line, Tennessee would need to score five or six times to cover. I’m not convinced the Volunteers have the offensive firepower to make that happen quickly.
Once Tennessee takes control of the game, they’re likely to ease up, making a late Bulldogs cover plausible. Mississippi State has a knack for sneaky backdoor covers, and that plays heavily into my thinking.
Ultimately, I don’t trust Mississippi State’s offense to succeed against Tennessee’s defense, but I have similar doubts about Tennessee’s struggling offense. This won’t be a defensive slugfest, but I don’t expect the total to go over either.
Prediction: Tennessee 38, Mississippi State 16
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.