The Battle for the Axe is the oldest rivalry in the FBS, and this season, the stakes are high — at least for one team. The Wisconsin Badgers enter their rivalry game with the Minnesota Golden Gophers with their longest-active bowl streak in perilous danger after a difficult season in a new-look Big Ten.
Who will prevail? Our Minnesota vs. Wisconsin prediction dives into all the details—from the latest betting odds to what’s at stake for both programs as they navigate the final game of the 2024 college football regular season.
Minnesota vs. Wisconsin Betting Preview
All Minnesota vs. Wisconsin odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Nov. 28, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Pick ’em - Spread
Wisconsin -1 - Moneyline
Wisconsin -110, Minnesota -110 - Over/Under
41 points - Game Time
Noon ET - Location
Camp Randall Stadium | Madison, WI - Predicted Weather at Kick
21 degrees, sunny, 16 mph winds - How To Watch
CBS
Friday marks the 134th edition of the Battle for the Axe (or Slab of Bacon), and the rivalry has been one of the closest and longest-running. After the Badgers’ two-touchdown win a year ago, the program holds a slender 63-62-8 advantage over its bitter rival. The Minnesota vs. Wisconsin odds are as close as you’d expect, with the Badgers a one-point favorite.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Wisconsin has actually flourished when favored this fall, holding a 5-1 record when expected to win ahead of the game. However, they’re coming off a defeat to the Nebraska Cornhuskers, where they were the moneyline favorite. Minnesota has failed to cover as a single-score underdog this year and has lost their last two games, but our prediction holds some positivity for the Gophers.
Minnesota’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM sees little separating these teams, but the Golden Gophers could clinch a winning season with a win. Our metric has Minnesota as the slightest of favorites, with a winning probability of 50.6%
- at Wisconsin: 50.6%
Wisconsin’s Winning Probability
Wisconsin struggled this year when starting quarterback Tyler Van Dyke went down. Now, Luke Fickell and company are seeking a win to continue the Badgers’ FBS-long 22-year bowl streak. They’ll have a 49.4% chance to win at home, per our metric.
- vs. Minnesota: 49.4%
Prediction for Minnesota vs. Wisconsin
Part of the intrigue of The Battle for the Axe is that there’s rarely a huge gap between these two teams. Yet again, that’s the case in 2024.
Minnesota, on paper, is the slightly stronger team. The Gophers are also coming off a close loss to the Penn State Nittany Lions. As has become the case this season, though, they struggled to close out a winnable game.
In fact, four of Minnesota’s five losses this season have been by three points or less.
Wisconsin, on the other hand, is spiraling. The Badgers have lost four straight after a 5-2 start and are in real danger of missing a bowl while having five opportunities down the stretch to punch their ticket.
The passing game has been a real obstacle for both teams this season, and the elements certainly won’t help with that. It’s going to be extremely cold and windy, making consistent passing an issue.
Because of that, I lean toward the better rushing attack in this one.
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When Darius Taylor gets going, good things happen for the Golden Gophers. He’s averaged less than 40 yards per game in losses and has gone over 60 yards in all but one win.
Meanwhile, Wisconsin tried to run the Air Raid under Phil Longo without the quarterback, receivers, or defense to succeed in that scheme. With Longo gone, there’s no clear scheme or identity.
It’s been a running-back-by-committee approach for the Badgers, but that hasn’t helped them, having averaged around 17 points per game in their last five.
I’m backing the Gophers in this one, backed by a steady dose of Taylor in the running game. If Max Brosmer can limit the mistakes at the quarterback position, I think the Gophers can grind out a close win.
It’ll be ugly, but that’s par for the course for the Battle for the Axe. Take the Gophers and sprinkle the under, as I think Wisconsin could be prone to mistakes and will struggle offensively.
Prediction: Minnesota 23, Wisconsin 19
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