One of college football’s oldest and most played rivalries will be renewed on Saturday when the 2-2 Minnesota Golden Gophers head to Ann Arbor to take on the No. 12 Michigan Wolverines.
The Little Brown Jug will be on the line in our Minnesota vs. Michigan prediction.
Minnesota vs. Michigan Betting and DFS Preview
All Minnesota vs. Michigan odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Sept. 27, 2024.
- Spread
Michigan -10 - Moneyline
Minnesota +310, Michigan -395 - Over/Under
35.5 - Game Time
12 p.m. ET - Location
Michigan Stadium | Ann Arbor, MI - Predicted Weather at Kick
66 degrees, partly cloudy - How To Watch
FOX
After covering the spread for the first time all season against USC, Michigan opened up as an 8.5-point favorite and has been backed in the early portion of betting, receiving 88% of the bets placed on the spread. The Wolverines are 8-2-1 against the spread in conference games since the start of last season.
Michigan has outscored the Gophers by an average of 30 points in their last three head-to-head matchups. And that number has climbed to 10 points for Michigan on the spread.
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The stout Michigan defense, which allowed only 10.7 points per game against conference opponents last season, has been keeping the totals under control. Since the start of last season, the game has gone under the total six of the last nine times Michigan entered as a home favorite.
Minnesota has not covered the spread in either of its two games as an underdog in 2024. In fact, they have covered the spread just once in their last seven games as an underdog since the start of last season.
The Golden Gophers will play their first road game of the season on Saturday. Five of the last eight Minnesota road contests have seen the game go under the total.
Prediction for Minnesota vs. Michigan
Michigan has controlled this rivalry in recent years, taking 43 of the last 47 matchups between the two schools. Minnesota is looking for its first road victory against an AP-ranked Wolverines squad since 2005. Last season, Michigan’s 52-10 rout marked the worst defeat for the Gophers under head coach P.J. Fleck.
Though it wasn’t exactly a masterpiece, the Wolverines head into this game fresh off a comeback win over USC, where they erased a late fourth-quarter deficit to push their Big Ten winning streak to a school-record 26 games.
Expect a classic Big Ten-style clash in this matchup, with both teams heavily reliant on the ground game. Michigan’s passing attack has been virtually nonexistent, evident by their mere 32 passing yards in last week’s win over USC.
The Wolverines have shifted quarterbacks early in the season, turning to Alex Orji after initially starting Davis Warren, and have leaned heavily on their rushing game—running the ball 46 times compared to just 12 passes against the Trojans.
Look for Michigan to continue its ground-and-pound approach, led by a strong backfield duo. Kalel Mullings, who set a career-high with 159 yards last week, highlighted by a 53-yard touchdown run, will look to power the offense alongside Donovan Edwards, who scored his 17th career rushing touchdown.
〽️ 17 car.
〽️ 159 yards
〽️ 2 TDKalel Mullings posted his second straight 150-yard, 2-TD effort in a win over No. 11 USC.#B1GFootball x @UMichFootball pic.twitter.com/wTyre40WlV
— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) September 21, 2024
On the other side, Minnesota’s Max Brosmer has shown flashes of promise, throwing two second-quarter touchdown passes against Iowa last week. However, he struggled after halftime, managing only 44 passing yards as the Gophers fell short. Despite those inconsistencies, Brosmer, a sixth-year transfer, could provide P.J. Fleck with the most reliable passing option since Tanner Morgan’s 30-touchdown season in 2019.
If the Gophers can protect Brosmer and establish a rhythm early, they’ll have a chance to challenge Michigan’s defensive front but expect the Wolverines to lean on their dominant run game to control the tempo and secure the victory.
We know Michigan’s offense prefers to run the football. That is an area of concern for Fleck, who has seen his run defense gashed at times during the early portion of the season. The Golden Gophers have allowed 123.8 rushing yards per game against North Carolina, Rhode Island, Nevada, and Iowa.
It might not look very pretty, but neither Michigan head coach Sherrone Moore nor the Wolverines fan base will care if Michigan needs to keep pounding the rock to win games. The move to Orji under the center solidifies that thought process; you can expect another 75-25 split in terms of the ratio of rushing attempts to passing attempts.
The combination of Mullings and Edwards averaged over 7.3 yards per rush against the Trojans. Look for the Wolverines to rely on the same formula and trust their defense to stop an offense that currently ranks 15th out of 18 Big Ten teams in yards per play.
Prediction: Michigan 27, Minnesota 9
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