Though the Minnesota Golden Gophers boast a 40-33-3 lead in the all-time series, the Illinois Fighting Illini have triumphed in the last three matchups. Can the Gophers turn the tide?
In our Minnesota vs. Illinois preview, we break down the matchup and share key betting insights to help you make the sharpest picks.
Minnesota vs. Illinois Betting Preview
All Minnesota vs. Illinois odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 1, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Illinois -5.5 - Spread
Minnesota -3 - Moneyline
Minnesota -148, Illinois +124 - Over/Under
45.5 points - Game Time
Noon ET, Saturday, Nov. 2 - Location
Memorial Stadium | Champaign, Ill. - Predicted Weather at Kick
60 degrees, 8 mph winds, partly cloudy - How To Watch
FS1
Both teams are hot against the spread this season, with Minnesota 6-1-1 and Illinois 5-2. However, the Gophers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against the Illini and 2-5 in their last seven on the road.
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The total is a little more double-sided, specifically for Illinois. The under has hit in six of the program’s previous eight contests, but the score went over in four of its last five November bouts.
Minnesota’s Winning Probability
The Golden Gophers are one win from bowl eligibility, but there’s no guarantee they’ll get that win over their final four games. They’re on the road for three of the contests and favored to win by the FPM in only one contest overall:
- at Illinois: 35.4%
- at Rutgers: 53.8%
- vs. Penn State: 18.9%
- at Wisconsin: 38.1%
Illinois’ Winning Probability
The Fighting Illini already have six wins on the year, but at 3-2 in the conference with 60% or higher win probabilities the rest of the way, they still have an outside chance at the Big Ten title game.
- vs. Minnesota: 64.6%
- vs. Michigan State: 74.6%
- at Rutgers: 64.6%
- at Northwestern: 80.6%
Prediction for Minnesota vs. Illinois
The Golden Gophers kept their Big Ten winning streak alive with a commanding 48-23 victory over the Maryland Terrapins in Week 9. Meanwhile, the Fighting Illini limp into this matchup after taking a tough 38-9 loss to the Oregon Ducks.
Turnovers are crucial in any game, but they’ll play an especially pivotal role here. Illinois is a perfect 5-0 when winning the turnover margin, while Minnesota has gone 0-3 when they don’t. The Gophers are +7 in their three-game conference streak, with just one turnover.
The Illini, despite coughing it up twice against Oregon, still sit at +6 on the season.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
If both teams protect the football, it’ll come down to one thing: third-down success. Minnesota ranks 17th nationally with a 47.0% third-down conversion rate, while Illinois struggles, allowing opponents to convert 45.0% of the time — 116th in the nation.
With QB Max Brosmer firing on all cylinders (70% completion rate or higher in his last three games) and RB Darius Taylor primed to exploit a subpar run defense (Illinois ranks 78th, allowing 154.8 rushing yards per game), the road favorite looks poised to win and cover in this one.
Prediction: Minnesota 27, Illinois 20
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