The Minnesota Golden Gophers may hold the all-time series lead at 40-33-3, but the Illinois Fighting Illini have left the last three meetings victorious. Can the Gophers stop the bleeding?
In our Minnesota vs. Illinois preview, we detail the matchup and provide essential betting insights to guide your smartest wagers.
Minnesota vs. Illinois Betting Preview
All Minnesota vs. Illinois odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Oct. 30, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Illinois -5.5 - Spread
Minnesota -3 - Moneyline
Minnesota -148, Illinois +124 - Over/Under
45 points - Game Time
Noon ET, Saturday, Nov. 2 - Location
Memorial Stadium | Champaign, Ill. - Predicted Weather at Kick
60 degrees, 8 mph winds, partly cloudy - How To Watch
FS1
Both teams are hot against the spread this season, with Minnesota 6-1-1 and Illinois 5-2. However, the Gophers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against the Illini and 2-5 in their last seven on the road.
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The total is a little more double-sided, specifically for Illinois. The under has hit in six of the program’s previous eight contests, but the score went over in four of its last five November bouts.
Minnesota’s Winning Probability
The Golden Gophers are one win from bowl eligibility, but there’s no guarantee they’ll get that win over their final four games. They’re on the road for three of the contests and favored to win by the FPM in only one contest overall:
- at Illinois: 35.4%
- at Rutgers: 53.8%
- vs. Penn State: 18.9%
- at Wisconsin: 38.1%
Illinois’ Winning Probability
The Fighting Illini already have six wins on the year, but at 3-2 in the conference with 60% or higher win probabilities the rest of the way, they still have an outside chance at the Big Ten title game.
- vs. Minnesota: 64.6%
- vs. Michigan State: 74.6%
- at Rutgers: 64.6%
- at Northwestern: 80.6%
Prediction for Minnesota vs. Illinois
The Golden Gophers extended their Big Ten winning streak with a 48-23 drubbing of the Maryland Terrapins in Week 9. On the sideline, the Fighting Illini limp into this after the Oregon Ducks crushed them 38-9.
Turnovers are key in any matchup, but particularly this one. Illinois is 5-0 when it wins the turnover margin, while Minnesota is 0-3 when it doesn’t. The Gophers are +7 in their three-game conference streak, giving the ball away just once. The Fighting Illini, on the other hand, are still +6 on the season despite turning it over twice against Oregon.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
If both teams play clean football, it will come down to one area: the money down. Minnesota’s 47.0% third-down conversion rate is 17th in the nation. Illinois’ 45.0% third-down conversion rate allowed? 116th.
With QB Max Brosmer on a heater (70% completion rate or higher in the last three games) and RB Darius Taylor able to find a rhythm against subpar run defenses (Illinois ranks 78th at 154.8 yards allowed per game), take the road favorite to win and cover in this one.
Prediction: Minnesota 27, Illinois 20
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