Weekday CUSA dominates the Thursday night football schedule this week, with two matchups in the national limelight, including the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders traveling to Ruston to face the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs. After difficult starts for both programs, which team will bag their first conference win of the year?
Our Middle Tennessee vs. Louisiana Tech prediction contains the answers, the latest betting odds, and the Blue Raiders and Bulldogs’ winning probabilities for the rest of the 2024 college football campaign.
Middle Tennessee vs. Louisiana Tech Betting Preview
All Middle Tennessee vs. Louisiana Tech odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024.
- CFN FPM Spread
Louisiana Tech -1.5 - Spread
Louisiana Tech -5.5 - Moneyline
Louisiana Tech -218, Middle Tennessee +180 - Over/Under
48 points - Game time
8 p.m. ET - Location
Joe Aillet Stadium | Ruston, LA - Predicted Weather at Kick
53.6 degrees, clear, 5.6 mph winds - How to Watch
CBS Sports Network
The ninth matchup between Middle Tennessee and Louisiana Tech comes at a pivotal time for both programs, with both needing a win to kickstart a spluttering season. Although the Blue Raiders got the better of their CUSA rival when the two teams collided last fall, the Bulldogs hold a 5-3 head-to-head advantage. Meanwhile, Middle Tennessee has never won in Ruston in four attempts — losing by multiple touchdowns on each occasion.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The moneyline favors the Bulldogs in this one, and our Middle Tennessee vs. Louisiana Tech prediction agrees that Sonny Cumbie’s team can get the win here. However, the 5.5-point spread is a little generous toward the Bulldogs, with CFN’s Football Playoff Meter (FPM) giving the home team a 1.5-point advantage. As such, Middle Tennessee should cover for the second successive game. Louisiana Tech hasn’t covered as a favorite in their last two games.
Middle Tennessee’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Middle Tennessee has a 47.5% chance of winning this CUSA clash. After opening the season with a win over Tennessee Tech, the Blue Raiders have run a gauntlet of difficult matchups against some Power Four powerhouses and CUSA frontrunner Western Kentucky.
The clash with Louisiana Tech is the first of two opportunities to get their season back on track. Here is how Middle Tennessee’s remaining schedule looks in terms of winning probability:
- at Louisiana Tech: 47.5%
- vs. Kennesaw State: 70.3%
- at Jacksonville State: 35.9%
- at UTEP: 49.2%
- vs. Liberty: 17.4%
- vs. New Mexico State: 52.5%
- at FIU: 47.5%
If those winning percentages were to hold true, Middle Tennessee would end the season with a 3-9 record, failing to earn bowl eligibility for the second successive season. However, within those projections, they have three close games (Louisiana Tech, UTEP, and FIU) that could turn a disastrous campaign into something a little more respectable.
Louisiana Tech’s Winning Probability
Meanwhile, the CFN FPM gives the Bulldogs a 52.5% chance of winning on Thursday night. It’s worth noting that the FPM correctly predicted Louisiana Tech’s 1-3 start when the oddsmakers had installed the team as a favorite in their last two losses.
Here are Louisiana Tech’s remaining winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. Middle Tennessee: 52.5%
- at New Mexico State: 47.5%
- vs. UTEP: 51.2%
- at Sam Houston: 31.2%
- vs. Jacksonville State: 36.4%
- at Western Kentucky: 21.9%
- vs. Arkansas: 12.2%
- vs. Kennesaw State: 74.6%
If those winning percentages were to hold true, Louisiana Tech would end the season with a 4-8 record. That would be the most wins for the program since 2020. However, with multiple tight games including three with less than a field goal projected to separate them from their opponents, there is a huge swing potential and significant pressure on head coach Cumbie.
Prediction for Middle Tennessee vs. Louisiana Tech
It’s been a dismal start to the season for both of these teams, with Middle Tennessee’s barbaric opening schedule ensuring that Derek Mason’s tenure has gotten off to a rocky start. Meanwhile, a 1-3 record after four games has done little to alleviate the temperature under Cumbie’s seat in Ruston. As such, this is a must-win game for both teams.
Can Middle Tennessee get their first-ever win in Ruston on Thursday night, or will the Bulldogs have too much bite for the Blue Raiders? Who has the upper hand, and where will the critical battles unfold?
The tale of the tape in this game could come down to the haves and have-nots. Louisiana Tech has a stellar defense and Middle Tennessee hasn’t got a great offense. It’s a simplistic view of a complex sport, but in essence, the Blue Raiders don’t have the ability to put points up on this Bulldogs defense. They’ve averaged just 16 points per game this fall, and while they’ve faced stellar opponents, they just haven’t been able to score.
It isn’t for a lack of trying. Quarterback Nicholas Vattiato leads all CUSA quarterbacks for pass attempts and passing yards per game. However, just 46.2% of their red zone trips have resulted in a touchdown this fall, and the Blue Raiders’ five passing touchdowns rank 108th in the country. Meanwhile, the ground game averages just 2.75 yards per carry with five touchdowns.
The Louisiana Tech offense is hardly any better. The Bulldogs have averaged just 18.8 points per game in 2024, while their rushing offense is the worst amongst all CUSA teams. Jack Turner has actually produced more explosive passing plays than some more notable quarterbacks in the conference, but they have just one offensive playmaker with more than one touchdown (Jimmy Holiday, three scores) entering Week 7.
As such, expect whoever has the better defense to emerge victorious from a low-scoring game. Middle Tennessee has given up 39 points per game this season, giving up the most passing touchdowns in CUSA (13), giving up 9.1 yards per pass attempt, and allowing opposition quarterbacks to complete 72.6% of their passes. Louisiana Tech has the best rush defense and second-ranked pass defense in CUSA, while ranking 25th nationally for total defense. Advantage Bulldogs.
Prediction: Middle Tennessee 17, Louisiana Tech 21
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.