The 2-5 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders travel to Alabama on Wednesday night to take on the 3-3 Jacksonville State Gamecocks in “Weekday CUSA” action on Wednesday. Can Derek Mason’s team cause a stir with an upset on the road?
Our Middle Tennessee vs. Jacksonville State prediction breaks down everything you need to know, including the latest betting odds and each team’s chances of success for the remainder of the 2024 college football season.
Middle Tennessee vs. Jacksonville State Betting Preview
All Middle Tennessee vs. Jacksonville State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 19, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Jacksonville State -8 - Spread
Jacksonville State -21 - Moneyline
Jacksonville State -1450, Middle Tennessee +850 - Over/Under
63.5 points - Game time
7:30 p.m ET - Location
AmFirst Stadium | Jacksonville, AL - Predicted Weather at Kick
50 degrees, clear, 4 mph winds - How to Watch
ESPN2
This has traditionally been a happy hunting ground for the Blue Raiders, who take an 18-3-2 head-to-head advantage into Wednesday night’s clash. However, two of those three defeats have occurred in recent outings, with the Gamecocks on a two-game win streak that includes their first-ever CUSA encounter one year ago.
Everything is trending toward Jacksonville state, including the moneyline.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Furthermore, the Gamecocks are on a hot streak covering the spread, going 3-0 in their last three games after starting the year 0-3. They’ve covered the last two as a double-digit favorite, which is what DraftKings Sportsbook has made them here. Middle Tennessee is 2-5 ATS this year, including failing to cover in four of the five games they’ve been underdogs in 2024.
Middle Tennessee’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Middle Tennessee has a 26.6% chance of winning on Wednesday night. Having already lost to Western Kentucky and with Liberty still to come, the Blue Raiders have had to face the three best teams in CUSA.
Here are the Blue Raiders’ remaining win probabilities for the 2024 season:
- at Jacksonville State: 26.6%
- at UTEP: 50%
- vs. Liberty: 18.4%
- vs. New Mexico State: 61.9%
- at FIU: 44.4%
If these win probabilities hold true, Middle Tennessee will end the 2024 campaign with a 3-9 record, worse than their final season under Rick Stockstill. However, that factors in a loss in the 50:50 game with UTEP and a road loss to FIU, which could conceivably turn into a Blue Raiders’ win. Even with those two, they would miss out on bowl eligibility for the second successive season.
Jacksonville State’s Winning Probability
Meanwhile, Jacksonville State has a 73.4% chance of winning the Wednesday night showdown, comfortably their easiest remaining game on the 2024 schedule.
Here are the Gamecocks’ remaining win probabilities for the 2024 season:
- vs. Middle Tennessee: 73.4%
- at Liberty: 24.7%
- at Louisiana Tech: 52.8%
- vs. FIU: 66.9%
- vs. Sam Houston: 52.8%
- at Western Kentucky: 29.7%
If these win probabilities hold true, Jacksonville State will end the 2024 campaign with a 7-5 record. Although that would be a two-loss increase compared to 2023, it would mark a second successive winning season and back-to-back bowl eligibility for the second-year FBS outfit.
Prediction for Middle Tennessee vs. Jacksonville State
Middle Tennessee is looking to get its season back on track on Wednesday night when it travels to Alabama. The team’s first year under head coach Mason has been difficult so far. Meanwhile, after a shaky out-of-conference start, Rich Rodriguez’s team is striving to keep pace with the Liberty Flames and Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at the CUSA summit.
Can the Blue Raiders reverse their defeat against the Gamecocks a year ago, or will Jacksonville State add a third consecutive conference win to keep pressure on at the top of the CUSA standings? Who’s got the edge, and where will the key battles unfold?
As the Middle Tennessee vs. Jacksonville State odds suggest, this is the Gamecocks to lose. The two teams are brutally mismatched in multiple areas, and it starts with the up-tempo offense that Rodriguez runs. His team currently ranks 16th nationally for scoring offense, averaging 39.3 points per game. They’ve actually averaged 58.5 points per game in CUSA play.
That brutal scoring prowess starts with quarterback Tyler Huff. The former Furman Paladins standout leads CUSA in yards per attempt (9.5 YPA) and has thrown for over 1,000 yards and seven scores. Yet, he’s at his most dangerous as a true dual-threat, leading all CUSA QBs with 503 yards and six scores. Only teammate Tre Stewart has more rushing touchdowns.
Between Huff and running backs Stewart and Anwar Lewis, the Gamecocks have the number one CUSA rushing offense for touchdowns (22) and yards per carry (5.53). It’s a top-10 unit nationally that the Blue Raiders simply don’t have the talent to contain on Wednesday night.
The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs, Memphis Tigers, and Ole Miss Rebels all rushed for over 200 yards on the Blue Raiders this season. When you consider that Middle Tennessee has yet to score more than 21 points against any FBS team in 2024, they likely can’t go toe-to-toe with Huff and co. even with the Gamecocks defense taking a step back compared to 2023.
Prediction: Middle Tennessee 23, Jacksonville State 45
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