A few years back, Indiana fans enjoyed some success with Michael Penix Jr., sparking the playful nickname “9-Windiana.” Now, in Curt Cignetti’s first season at the helm, a nine-win season would actually feel like a letdown.
Indiana’s path to a Big Ten Championship play-in game against Ohio State now runs through Michigan. With the Wolverines sticking to a one-dimensional style all season, can they spoil Indiana’s perfect run? Here’s our take on which side we’re backing in this Michigan vs. Indiana matchup.
Michigan vs. Indiana Betting Preview
All Michigan vs. Indiana odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Nov. 7, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Indiana -13 - Spread
Indiana -14.5 - Moneyline
Indiana -675, Michigan +490 - Over/Under
49.5 points - Game Time
Nov. 9, 3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Indiana University Memorial Stadium | Bloomington, Ind. - Predicted Weather at Kick
63 degrees, cloudy, 8 mph winds - How To Watch
CBS
The last time Indiana was favored over Michigan, the U.S. was embroiled in the Vietnam War, the NFL was approaching Super Bowl II, and man hadn’t yet set foot on the moon. Fifty-six years after 1968, the Hoosiers are favored again, this time by two touchdowns.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With a total of 48.5 points and the spread at 14 points, Vegas expects a big Indiana win. The implied final score is close to 31-17 in favor of the Hoosiers.
Michigan’s Winning Probability
Per CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, the Wolverines are heavy underdogs in two of their final three games. Michigan needs one more win to reach bowl eligibility but only has a 17.2% chance to win this game, per the metric.
- at Indiana: 17.2%
- vs. Northwestern: 83.5%
- at Ohio State: 10.2%
Indiana’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Indiana has an 82.8% chance of beating Michigan at home, which translates to a spread of about 13 points. The Hoosiers can win out to reach the Big Ten Championship, with the game against Ohio State essentially being a play-in game.
- vs. Michigan: 82.8%
- at Ohio State: 33.1%
- vs. Purdue: 96.7%
Prediction for Michigan vs. Indiana
On paper, Indiana should dominate. But there’s a lot to consider here. Let’s unpack a few factors.
First, both things can be true: Indiana is a legit Big Ten contender and a top-10 team, but they’ve also faced one of the softer schedules out there.
That second part? Not really Indiana’s fault—they can only play the teams on their slate. The challenge is that while Indiana has been steamrolling opponents, those teams aren’t exactly impressive.
The Hoosiers have only beaten one team with a winning record or a Big Ten top-10 ranking — a 5-4 Washington squad that’s winless outside of Husky Stadium.
Still, Indiana has put up at least 40 points in every game Kurtis Rourke has started.
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This could be a trap game with Ohio State looming next, but the Hoosiers get a bye week in between, so they should be ready.
Rourke wasn’t at full strength last week coming off a finger injury, but he was still highly effective. So, the real question here: can Michigan keep up?
Michigan’s offense has been tough to watch. They’re aiming for the old Iowa-style playbook—run the ball and play solid defense—but the Wolverines’ rushing game ranks outside the top 50, and the defense has its own issues (potentially missing top corner Will Johnson). Add to that one of the nation’s worst passing attacks, and it’s a setup for struggle.
The Wolverines have managed to scrape by against the Big Ten’s lower tier, averaging only 17 points in their last four games.
I expect Indiana to keep rolling. Cignetti knows that impressing the College Football Playoff Committee is crucial in case they stumble against Ohio State in two weeks. They won’t hold back here and might just get close to the over on their own.
Indiana may not need a statement win, but this would be a prime time to put a beatdown on a traditional powerhouse.
Indiana rolls: 10-Windiana.
Prediction: Indiana 45, Michigan 15
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