Michigan State Spartans head coach Jonathan Smith is no stranger to playing the Oregon Ducks, and just like he did at Oregon State, Smith has the Spartans as plucky underdogs in their first year. Things can get ugly, but overall the Spartans have held their own in Year 1.
Meanwhile, Oregon has sleepwalked through the beginning of the schedule but is playing its best football of the year.
Can the Spartans keep pace with the Ducks? Find out in our Michigan State vs. Oregon prediction.
Michigan State vs. Oregon Betting Preview
All Michigan State vs. Oregon odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Oct. 1, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Oregon -23.5 - Spread
Oregon -24 - Moneyline
Oregon -2800, Michigan State +1300 - Over/Under
52.5 points - Game Time
Oct. 4, 9 p.m. ET - Location
Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Ore. - Predicted Weather at Kick
66 degrees, partly sunny, 4 mph winds - How To Watch
Fox
College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter and Vegas are aligned on this one, as both have Oregon as heavy favorites. With a spread of 24 points and a total of 52.5, Vegas implies a final score close to 38-14 in favor of the Ducks.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
The spread has dropped slightly from 24.5 to 24, while the total has remained largely unchanged, though most of the bets have been on the over.
Michigan State’s Winning Probability
FPM has Michigan State as a 23.5-point underdog, giving it a win probability of 4.7%. While the Spartans are likely underdogs for most of the Big Ten slate, this represents their hardest remaining game.
The Spartans’ win probabilities for the rest of the season are listed below.
- at Oregon: 4.7%
- vs. Iowa: 35.9%
- at Michigan: 12.6%
- vs. Indiana: 34.9%
- at Illinois: 25.4%
- vs. Purdue: 58.9%
- at Rutgers: 39.4%
Oregon’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Oregon has a 95.3% chance to win on Saturday. While the Ducks have a few hard games left on the schedule, they’re mostly at home, and there’s a real chance the Ducks could go undefeated in the regular season, with just two games with a winning probability of under 87%.
The Ducks’ win probabilities for the rest of the season are listed below.
- vs. Michigan State: 95.3%
- vs. Ohio State: 52.8%
- at Purdue: 93.1%
- vs. Illinois: 90.4%
- at Michigan: 65.1%
- vs. Maryland: 94.1%
- at Wisconsin: 87.4%
- vs. Washington: 92.9%
Prediction for Oregon vs. Michigan
On paper, this is a huge mismatch, but the Spartans haven’t really been blown out and the Ducks haven’t really blown anyone out this season.
Neither team has been particularly good against the spread, as the Ducks have covered just once (Oregon State) and the Spartans only managed to cover against Maryland.
The story is going to be whether Michigan State’s offense can muster much of a showing.
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If Michigan State only manages seven points against Oregon, as it did against Ohio State, it’s going to be a similar result; the Buckeyes eventually covered a similar 23.5-point spread at home by simply scoring enough in the first half to allow themselves breathing room in the second half, knowing the Spartan offense wasn’t going to threaten often.
On the other hand, Oregon could use a “get right” game in front of a national television audience after the trendy national champion pick has looked a tad out of sync through four games.
Oregon doesn’t want another ugly win, especially at home before a huge showdown with Ohio State looming next Saturday.
The result of this game won’t ever be in doubt, but I am interested in the Dillon Gabriel dynamic. He simply hasn’t looked as comfortable in this Oregon offense as most of us thought he would. Michigan State’s defensive front should be able to create some pressure and make him uncomfortable. That isn’t likely to be enough to put the outcome in doubt, but perhaps it is enough to prevent a crooked number.
I have the Spartans covering without scoring much, meaning I like the under here as well. Oregon just hasn’t looked as sharp as it should, and I can’t take the Ducks to cover a large number while the team looks off.
Prove me wrong, Oregon. The ball’s in your court.
Prediction: Oregon 31, Michigan State 13
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