For the first time since 1928, the Michigan State Spartans and Michigan Wolverines enter their rivalry game with three or more losses each. Yet, the fierce spirit of this historic matchup remains undiminished, as both teams are set to clash for pride and the coveted Paul Bunyan Trophy.
With kickoff for this crucial Big Ten showdown approaching, here’s a comprehensive look at the latest odds, a breakdown of the spread, and our prediction for Michigan State vs. Michigan.
Michigan State vs. Michigan Betting Preview
All Michigan State vs. Michigan odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Oct. 25, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Michigan -8.5 - Spread
Michigan -4 - Moneyline
Michigan -175, Michigan State +145 - Over/Under
39 points - Game Time
7:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, Oct. 26 - Location
Michigan Stadium | Ann Arbor, Mich. - Predicted Weather at Kick
48 degrees, 3 mph winds, partly cloudy - How To Watch
BTN
After opening as a six-point spread, Michigan has seen the line drop to -3.5, likely due to Michigan State’s performance against Iowa last week (32-20 win).
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Bettors should note the Spartans are 12-3-1 against the spread in their last 16 games vs. Michigan, as well as 4-2 ATS in their last six contests this season. Meanwhile, the Wolverines are 1-6 ATS in 2024 — one of their worst marks since the turn of the century.
There are also a couple of conflicting trends when it comes to the total:
- The under has hit in eight of MSU’s last 10 games.
- The over has hit in 12 of Michigan’s last 18.
Michigan State’s Winning Probability
Despite the spread’s movement, the FPM still views Michigan State as the clear underdog, setting the program’s win probability at 25.4%.
In fact, the Spartans own 22% or lower rates in their next two contests before being favored in their final two:
- vs. Indiana: 19.4%
- at Illinois: 21.9%
- vs. Purdue: 75.3%
- vs. Rutgers: 51.2%
Michigan’s Winning Probability
As much of a disappointing season as it’s been for Michigan, the team still has a 74.6% win probability against their in-state rival. However, it only gets worse from here, with bouts against Oregon, Indiana, and Ohio State still on deck.
- at Oregon: 17.0%
- vs. Indiana: 22.6%
- at Northwestern: 85.1%
- vs. Ohio State: 9.6%
Prediction for Michigan State vs. Michigan
Michigan has dominated the all-time series against Michigan State, holding a 73-38-5 lead. Home-field advantage has been a major factor in Ann Arbor, with the Wolverines winning 19 of their last 20 games at the Big House.
The Spartans last tasted victory in this rivalry back in 2021, when Kenneth Walker III carried them to a 37-33 win with five touchdowns. Now in 2024, both teams enter the matchup at 4-3 overall and 2-2 in Big Ten play, marking the first time since 2008 that neither is ranked.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Michigan, the reigning national champions, is looking to snap a two-game skid, including a 21-7 loss to Illinois. Meanwhile, Michigan State came out strong after a bye week, topping Iowa 32-20.
Both teams feature almost entirely new lineups compared to last year’s blowout, where Michigan rolled to a 49-0 win. The Spartans have 61 new players and a completely new coaching staff under Jonathan Smith, while Michigan, led by new head coach Sherrone Moore, is adjusting to a revamped roster, including a new quarterback in place of J.J. McCarthy and a rebuilt offensive line.
With the total set in the low 40s, the under looks appealing as Michigan (21.2 PPG, 112th) and Michigan State (21.6 PPG, 110th) feature two of the nation’s weakest offenses.
Quarterback play has been a major issue for both teams. Michigan has benched two QBs (Davis Warren and Alex Orji), while Michigan State has struggled with Aidan Chiles, who has posted a 59.3% completion rate with six touchdowns and nine interceptions.
Michigan State’s defense managed to slow down Heisman contender Kaleb Johnson of Iowa last week and will likely employ a similar strategy against Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards. However, Chiles could be prone to turnovers against Michigan’s strong defense, especially with star cornerback Will Johnson nearing full health.
Expect Michigan to win and cover, but don’t anticipate a repeat of last year’s blowout.
Prediction: Michigan 20, Michigan State 13
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