Even with the Big Ten’s expansion in 2024, some classic, hard-hitting, low-scoring matchups remain. One such showdown is set for Saturday between the Michigan Wolverines and the Illinois Fighting Illini.
When two stout defenses collide in a traditional Big Ten battle, who comes out on top? Check out our pick in this Michigan vs. Illinois prediction.
Michigan vs. Illinois Betting Preview
All Michigan vs. Illinois odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Oct. 18, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Michigan -2 - Spread
Michigan -4 - Moneyline
Michigan -180, Illinois +150 - Over/Under
44.5 points - Game Time
Oct. 19, 3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Illinois Memorial Stadium, Champaign, Ill. - Predicted Weather at Kick
75 degrees, sunny, 7 mph winds - How To Watch
CBS
The CFN Football Playoff Meter and Vegas spread differ slightly, but both favor the Wolverines. This line opened as a near pick ’em before bets poured in on Michigan.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
The total is set at 44.5 points, indicative of the defensive talent — and the struggling offenses — in this one. With a spread of 4 points, the implied final score is close to 24-20 in favor of the Wolverines.
Michigan’s Winning Probability
Per the FPM, the Wolverines are in danger of a disappointing season. Michigan has a 53.4% chance to win the game, per the metric, translating to an implied spread of about two points.
The Wolverines are favored in three of their remaining games. Here are Michigan’s winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at Illinois: 53.4%
- vs. Michigan State: 83.5%
- vs. Oregon: 25.4%
- at Indiana: 37.4%
- vs. Northwestern: 91.5%
- at Ohio State: 17.0%
Illinois’ Winning Probability
FPM thinks Illinois could win several of its remaining games. The Fighting Illini have a 46.6% chance to win the game, per FPM, their second-hardest remaining game on the schedule. They have several true winnable games left on the schedule, making this a crucial game.
Here are the Fighting Illini’s winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. Michigan: 46.6%
- at Oregon: 8.3%
- vs. Minnesota: 64.6%
- vs. Michigan State: 74.9%
- at Rutgers: 50.6%
- at Northwestern: 75.5%
Prediction for Michigan vs. Illinois
By now, it’s clear that this isn’t the same Michigan team as last year. Despite a 4-2 record, the Wolverines have struggled mightily against quality defenses, with an offense that’s become entirely one-dimensional. Sherrone Moore is now down to his third quarterback, and the results haven’t been any better than with the previous two.
Meanwhile, Illinois is quietly sticking to what works best. The Illini have zeroed in on a few reliable plays and keep returning to them. As long as it’s effective, they’ll keep at it.
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This season, their key to success has been tossing it up to receivers Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin. The duo has racked up nearly 800 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. The defense has been solid, except for a strange 49-point outburst allowed against Purdue.
Luck has also played a part, as Illinois is 2-0 in overtime and 3-0 in one-score games. Aside from a loss to Penn State, their offense has been efficient, not at all like Bret Bielema’s teams of the past.
Michigan is a strong team but lacks any real quarterback competency. It might even benefit them to lean on the Wildcat formation or integrate aspects of the triple option.
At some point, this season could take a turn for the worse. Michigan hasn’t had a 100-yard passer since September 14, and Illinois has the defensive front to challenge their run game enough to force them to pass.
In 2024, Michigan will lose every game where they’re forced to air it out.
Expect Luke Altmyer to have a solid performance, putting pressure on whichever quarterback Michigan decides to use. Take Illinois and the over, especially with the Illini getting more than a field goal.
Prediction: Illinois 27, Michigan 24
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