In recent weeks, they’ve been more like the Miami Heart Attacks than the Miami Hurricanes. But fresh from a bye, is Mario Cristobal’s team ready to forget the close calls and concentrate on what seems like a date with ACC title destiny?
The Louisville Cardinals were a preseason favorite to challenge for the title once more, but after a couple of defeats, this Miami matchup has a must-win element to it. Can the Hurricanes stay perfect, or will Louisville keep its ACC Championship hopes alive? Find out which way we lean in our Miami vs. Louisville prediction.
Miami vs. Louisville Betting Preview
All Miami vs. Louisville odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Oct. 16, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Miami -6 - Spread
Miami -5 - Moneyline
Miami -198, Louisville +164 - Over/Under
61 points - Game Time
Noon ET - Location
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium | Louisville, KY - Predicted Weather at Kick
62 degrees, sunny, 3 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
As the week has progressed, the oddsmakers have swung closer to the original CFN FPM spread line, showcasing that Vegas perhaps still underestimates the Hurricanes in this 2024 college football season. Miami was a 3.5-point favorite to open, moving to five points by Wednesday. There’s a strong chance that the Miami vs. Louisville odds align with the CFN FPM by Saturday,
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Is backing Miami to cover a risk, however? The Hurricanes are 3-3 covering the spread this fall after two narrow wins (Virginia Tech, Cal) as a double-digit favorite. They did cover the only other time they were favored by under 10 points. Furthermore, Louisville has failed to cover in each of their last four games — with a push in the only game they were an underdog this fall.
Miami’s Winning Probability
The Hurricanes are bigger favorites with FPM than in Vegas. Miami has a 65.7% chance to win the game, per the metric, translating to an implied spread of about six points.
The Hurricanes have a path to being undefeated as they’re favored in every remaining game, though a couple are close. Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at Louisville: 65.7%
- vs. Florida State: 93.5%
- vs. Duke: 87.2%
- at Georgia Tech: 66.4%
- vs. Wake Forest: 93.1%
- at Syracuse: 74.9%
Louisville’s Winning Probability
The Cardinals have a 34.3% chance to win the game, per FPM. The Cardinals have a tough schedule down the stretch, as they’ll only be favored by more than three points in one remaining game. Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. Miami: 34.3%
- at Boston College: 51.2%
- at Clemson: 24.5%
- at Stanford: 75.3%
- vs. Pittsburgh: 54.3%
- at Kentucky: 49.2%
Prediction for Miami vs. Louisville
While Miami was lucky to escape its previous two games, the Hurricanes largely outplayed their competition, simply struggling to stop the explosive pass game of California. That’s certainly a concern against Tyler Shough and Ja’Corey Brooks, who has been the leading receiver in every game this season for the Cardinals.
Shough, when on, has been one of the best quarterbacks in the ACC. On the other hand, he’s a seventh-year senior but has made one or two silly mistakes in just about every game this season.
The Louisville passing offense has the firepower to really hurt the Miami secondary, but Shough has to avoid mistakes that end drives prematurely. It’s not just interceptions, but delays of game and procedure penalties.
On the other side, Louisville’s defense is horrible at creating havoc. The Cardinals’ defense is 115th in sack rate and has just one interception this year. They’ve created six turnovers this season, three on fumbled pitches or snaps and three against non-Power Four competition.
More than that, Miami quarterback Cam Ward succeeds in spite of his propensity to throw mind-boggling interceptions. Against the team with the fifth-lowest defensive interception rate in the FBS, he might not have to overcome another pick-six like he has in recent weeks.
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Louisville’s rushing defense is excellent against running backs, but quarterbacks have feasted. Every FBS opponent Louisville has faced had their quarterback as the leading rusher in the game, including huge rushing performances from Virginia’s Anthony Colandrea and SMU’s Kevin Jennings in the last two weeks.
Basically, I think Cam Ward runs for a lot of yardage. He might go over 100 on the ground to go with another huge passing night and no terrible interceptions. Miami isn’t losing if that happens. Maybe one of those three things doesn’t happen, but Ward could have a Heisman moment on Saturday.
Take the Hurricanes and the points while people trick themselves into thinking it’s an upset spot.
Prediction: Miami 41, Louisville 23
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